Statement by the Federal Political Committee of Yabloko, 3.12.2019

The Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko expresses its deep concern over the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), the US intention to withdraw from the Open Sky Treaty, and the uncertain prospects for extending the existing or concluding a new strategic offensive arms reduction (START) treaty.

All this develops into a tendency to destroy the world security system in terms of arms control.

Perhaps its individual elements are out of date; definitely, the realities of the modern world, such as technological changes and the increased military role of China, must be taken into account. However, instead of finding solutions or even setting these problems, we are witnessing a quick and comprehensive breakdown without offering any alternative, in addition to general declarations and good wishes.

It is in Russia’s national interests to maintain a global nuclear weapon control system and adapt it to modern conditions. This is indeed a very difficult task, the solution of which requires political will, diplomatic skill and high professionalism. However, for more than a decade, the Russian leadership has been pursuing a policy in exactly the opposite direction.

In our opinion, the political leadership of Russia is not making enough efforts to maintain the international security system in the field of nuclear weapons, but instead is leading to a full-scale arms race, despite the fact that it is already seriously affecting the financing of Russian education, health care, and retirement benefits.

A huge (even by the standards of the past Cold War) programme is underway to rearm all three types of strategic nuclear forces (including the deployment of 400 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and the construction of eight nuclear strategic submarines). The basis of this policy is the myths widespread in higher political circles about the inconsistency of the nuclear weapons agreements with Russian national interests. In particular, President Putin has publicly stated that the conclusion of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles in 1987 was “virtually unilateral disarmament” for the USSR.

This is completely untrue.

The Russian military doctrine, according to Vladimir Putin, is a retaliatory strike, that is, the launch of missiles at the signal of early warning systems before the missiles of the other side reach their goals. This concept has been known for a long time and means that within a few minutes or even seconds it is necessary to make a decision on the use of nuclear weapons based on information from military departments (often contradictory), under stress, under tremendous psychological pressure. Meanwhile, there have been many examples of false alarm from early warning satellites and erroneous assessments of the actions of the armed forces of other states. In addition, early warning systems may become the object of attack by anti-satellite systems or cyber diversions in the near future.

The arms race is becoming the basis of Vladimir Putin’s policy. So, at a meeting of the Security Council on November 22, 2019, Vladimir Putin said, “We were able to actually take a step forward in comparison with other leading military countries of the world – certainly, we must strive to maintain this state in the future …” However, criticism of the United States and the West as a whole, often quite justified, is used as a means of escalating anti-American and anti-Western propaganda, and not as a basis for finding a solution to strategic contradictions. Over the past few years, Russia has not proposed, but for the ultimatum requirements, any concrete and realistic options for solving the problems of missile defence, high-precision strategic conventional weapons, anti-satellite systems, the next START treaty and saving the INF Treaty.

However, Russia’s interests lie in a different field: not in substantiating the unwinding of the flywheel of the arms race, but in persistent initiatives to prevent it.

The Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko supports the proposals of leading Russian experts and specialists in the field of disarmament to immediately initiate negotiations between Russia and the USA, at least, on the following topics:

• ensuring, within the context of the next START treaty, the limitation of strategic offensive arms, including aircraft cruise missiles and air bombs to equip heavy bombers;
• establishment of ceilings for the number of ground-based intercontinental cruise missiles, as well as intercontinental missile-planning hypersonic systems, regardless of the type of their warheads;
• agreement on partial orbital ICBMs and autonomous long-range submarine vehicles;
• coordination of the measures of transparency and delineation of missile defence systems for destabilising strategic (global) defence against intercontinental missiles and regional missile defence and air defence systems for protection against medium-range missiles in order to limit the former and resolve the latter;
• initiating negotiations on space weapons, starting with a ban on testing anti-satellite systems of any kind;
• real dialogue on the mutual rejection of the means and methods of cyberattacks against the top echelon of information and control systems of each other.

The danger of nuclear war resulting from the termination of the INF Treaty and other agreements, the unfolding arms race is so great that it requires fundamentally new foreign policy approaches and high-quality modern diplomacy.

We insist that the security of our country in the 21st century needs successful negotiations on arms control, rather than new missiles, airplanes and lasers, and we demand that the Russian leadership take decisive action in this direction.

The future of Russia is not in the arms race, but in the creation of a modern system of international security.

Grigory Yavlinsky,

Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Yabloko Party

Grigory Yavlinsky is Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Yabloko Party, Vice-President of Liberal International. Doctor of Economics, Professor of the National Research University “Higher School of Economics”.