A secret construction of the second Iran’s uranium enrichment plant, which the world public has learned about, shows that Teheran continues its course towards challenging the UN, as well as regional and global security. New tests of ballistic missiles, including medium-range Shahab-3, have shifted the crisis into a dangerous phase.

Iran’s development of the nuclear fuel cycle technologies, enrichment of uranium in the first place, will arm it with a potential for accelerated development of nuclear weapons; albeit Iran does not have and is not planning to have such a number of nuclear power stations which would make the development of Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle economically feasible. (Even a single nuclear power station build with Russia’s assistance in Busher can use only certified fuel produced by Rosatom). This together with missiles development raises suspicions that Iran may have nuclear military plans.

Long-term concealed construction of the first uranium enrichment plant by Natanz and a number of other technical activities were acknowledged incompatible with IAEA guarantees and the Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This conditioned adoption in 2006-2008 of five UN Security Council resolutions demanding Iran to stop uranium enrichment and submit to the IAEA full information on its nuclear programme. However, Iran did not fulfill these resolutions.

Information on the second secret plant by Qom, which was built simultaneously with Iran’s negotiations with IAEA and the six states (five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) and was accompanied by Iran’s reassurances of alleged complete openness of its nuclear programme, totally breaks the myth of Iran’s peaceful intentions.

Iran’s tests of medium-range missiles taking place right after the recent decision of US President to abolish the plans on construction of an ABM system in the Chech Republic and Poland can only be assessed as a provocation and a service to the opponents of this decision in the US and Eastern Europe. In addition, this represents an obvious attempt to quarrel the US and Russia and disrupt the nacent improvement of relations between them. Obviously, Iran is trying to make Washington return to the strategic BRD plans in Europe so that to provoke a new aggravation of Russian-American discrepancies and continue playing on these pursuing its own goals.

Iran’s procession of nuclear weapons presents considerable threats for the national interests of Russia, the USA, the EU countries and the entire civilised world. Russia can not allow being turned into a target of nuclear blackmail from another neighbouring state. This already can not be regarded as a purely technical issue or a problem in the field of international law. The recent launches of missiles transfer this problem into political and military fields for Russia. The fact that a closed and unpredictable Iran’s regime possesses missile weapons and its demonstratively testing them should get into the focus of attention of Russia’s top political leaders, its military and its security services.

In addition, Iran’s obtaining of nuclear weapons will finally destruct the NPT, provoke a chain reaction of nuclear proliferation in the region and beyond, create a real possibility for the use of nuclear weapons in a regional war and getting of this weapon into the hands of international terrorists.

Also, if there is only one possibility left to stop Iran, i.e. by military force on behalf of the US and (or) Israel, such a way of developments will also contradict Russia’s interests, as well as international security. This will result in formation of a huge zone of conflicts and terrorism stretching from Palestine to the Hindu Kush, in a close proximity to the borders of Russia and the CIS with all the corresponding consequences. The risks of war in the Gulf has become real more than ever.

At present we are observing a situation when it is Russia’s position which determines whether Iran will have nuclear weapons or whether a great war in the Middle East will take place. It is inefficient to hope to get new proofs of peaceful intentions from Iran, which President Medvedev has recently demanded from Iran. The potential of double technologies, uranium enrichment inclusive, implies that today such a technology can be used for peaceful purposes (and IAEA inspections can provide evidence of this); whereas tomorrow a political decision will be taken and nuclear weapons will be developed on this basis within the shortest terms. And it will be too late to adopt measures against a violating country then.

At present Iran has only one way to prove its peaceful intentions – to fully implement the resolutions of the UN Security Council, particularly by ceasing to increase the number of centrifuges and stopping the functioning ones, as well as completely opening all the facilities, documentation, technologies and materials for IAEA inspections. Russia’s resolved stance to support the toughest sanctions of the UN Security Council is the only way to make Iran change its polices. If Russia takes this position, China will not dare to alone oppose four other permanent members of the UN Security Council.

The Russian United Democratic Party YABLOKO thinks that it is high time for Russia to take a principled position, stop lulling itself about Iran’s intentions, as well as break Iran’s tactics of playing on discrepancies between the great superpowers and using Russia in its own interests contradicting to the international security goals. Considerable progress in the development of a joint ABM system for protection of Russia, USA and their allies will serve as an additional warning for the countries aspiring to obtain nuclear missile weapons.

Only in this case can there be a revision of Teheran’s course and realistic groups in its leadership will be able to strengthen their position. Inspected stopping and dismantling of Iran’s military and double nuclear technologies programme will facilitate development of its mutually beneficial relations with Russian and other countries and rise in its welfare and economy, including creation of an absolutely peaceful nuclear energy sector.

See also:

Russia's ABM Initiatives

Russia-US Relations

Arms control

Situation around Iraq

SERGEI MITROKHIN'S SPEECH AT THE MEETING WITH US PRESIDENT BARAK OBAMA. Key Notes, Moscow, July 7, 2009

Resolution by the Political Committee of the YABLOKO party
October 6, 2009