Grigory Yavlinsky for Novaya Gazeta, 12.09.2024

Photo by Valery Melnikov, Kommersant

WHAT IS HAPPENING?

The Russian army is advancing in the Donbass. Ukraine’s armed forces are continuing their operations in Kursk Region. Russia is carrying out missile strikes on Kharkiv, Poltava and Lviv … Ukraine is  shelling Donetsk and Belgorod … The Russian missiles are destroying energy infrastructure in Ukraine. Ukraine’s drones are attacking Russian oil refineries. People are dying every day – soldiers and civilians, men and women, the elderly and children.

It is already clear to almost everybody, including the actual participants in the conflict at all levels, that any attempt to resolve the conflict through military force is futile. Moreover, the continuing escalation creates the risk of a further exacerbation of the scale of the confrontation and the potential involvement of new parties to the conflict – up to and including nuclear war which would without a shadow of a doubt lead to an irreparable disaster for everyone.

WHAT ARE THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT SAYING?

The Russian regime states that there is nobody to talk to about the conflict, while the Ukrainian administration says that there is nothing to discuss. Meanwhile the US claims that it is still too early to hold any negotiations. By contrast the European Union alleges that it is already too late to talk.

The mass media try to outdo each other with publications of analyses and detailed studies of military actions, cite experts and make forecasts – on the warring party that will seize the most population centres, the number of soldiers required to bolster defences or launch attacks, the number of square kilometres that the two sides will occupy by winter, the troops required by summer 2025 and the breakdown of such forces by then.

Countless bloggers engage in such mindless chatter on social networks, masquerading as political scientists, virologists or military experts. Virtually the same can also be heard from numerous high-ranking politicians of different calibre – from ministers to prime ministers and presidents, albeit they do so in a different form and adopt a poker face. Politicians, political scientists and experts in different countries constantly discuss the money that still needs to be allocated for military actions, the source of such funds, why they are not giving the promised or allocated amount, how many additional missiles and ammunition will be supplied, what targets should be struck now, and what ones should be ignored for the time being.

Against this backdrop, it can be hard to hear the people demanding an end to the bloodshed.  Nevertheless, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Serbia are advocating an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, while Brazil, India, China, Turkey and a number of other countries are also ready to assist this process in different ways. In addition, the results of the most recent opinion polls conducted in Russia and Ukraine show that more citizens from both countries are advocating an end to the military actions than their continuation.

WHAT IS A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT?

It is important to understand that a ceasefire agreement:

• DOES NOT reinforce the ownership of territories by the warring parties;
• DOES NOT establish international borders or lines of demarcation;
• DOES NOT touch upon such issues as whether a country is admitted to NATO or not;
• DOES NOT require an end to military cooperation with third countries;
• DOES NOT reinforce neutrality and does not transform any country into a satellite state;
• DOES NOT mean the lifting of sanctions;
• DOES NOT obstruct the investigation of military crimes.

A ceasefire agreement has one key prerogative – to stop the killing and maiming of people, bring to an end all the deadly violence and curb the military actions. All other issues can be discussed and can already be resolved subsequently through negotiations – through direct contacts, through intermediaries.  The negotiators will meet dozens of times, make demands, set conditions and reach agreements. The agreements will be broken and violated, then the discussions will resume and another attempt will be made to reach agreement… This work will continue for months and possibly for years. Such issues as the creation of demilitarised zones, troop withdrawals, guarantees and monitoring by third parties will be components of an agreement in some form or other, but not conditions precedent.

However, the crucial factor here is that people will stop dying. Consequently, a ceasefire agreement will make it possible to save thousands and possibly tens of thousands of lives.

There are more than enough examples in international history. The ceasefire agreement between South and North Korea was discussed at 159 meetings over two years. This agreement has already been in force for more than 70 years.

All the chatter that the parties need to secure more favourable territorial positions before they start any ceasefire negotiations is meaningless in the context of this conflict and the scale of the territories of the adversaries, and if this means the continued loss of countless more lives, then such talk is to all intents and purposes both cynical and amoral.

It goes without saying that negotiations about a lasting peace will also start at some point (provided that a nuclear apocalypse is averted). However, if they are going to lead to effective and enforceable solutions, the negotiations must be conducted not only between Russia and Ukraine, but also at all costs with the direct participation of the United States, the European Union and Great Britain, and also possibly with the involvement of China, furthermore, based on far more material factors than territorial issues. In the current situation every month of the continuation of military actions for the sake of some irresponsible fantastical developments and illusory goals leads to the loss of more and more lives and destroys the chances of any normal future.

And this is precisely why an immediate ceasefire is vital. For the sake of all these lives. For the sake of our future.

WHICH PARTIES SHOULD BE TARGETED IN THE CALL FOR A CEASEFIRE?

It goes without saying that the call for a ceasefire should be addressed to all the parties involved in the conflict. In other words, Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the European Union. Playing the blame game and shouting that whoever started the conflict should be the first to stop is either indicative of infantilism or idiotism.  Both sides must cease fire simultaneously and without agreeing to any conditions precedent. All-encompassing justice today demands that we bring to an end the loss of lives of innocent people. Everything else can be decided subsequently.

Naturally, the state leaders who are the key decision-makers should call for the ceasefire. It should also be understood here that identifying the individuals responsible for everything that has happened is important, but this issue should be addressed at a later date. Today, however, when countless people are dying, it is far more important to create a general atmosphere where any continuation of military actions is unacceptable. The citizens of the countries involved should themselves demand a ceasefire – by voting for anti-war candidates, through the mass media, through petitions, through opinion leaders, through responses to opinion polls which reflect the mood in society. And even conversations in the kitchen are also far more meaningful than they might appear at first glance. And this concerns Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Europe.

It stands to reason that Russian politicians should address first and foremost their own citizens. And this is exactly what the Yabloko Party has been doing. We have been conducting an anti-war campaign since summer 2021 – ever since the publication of President Putin’s article entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” where he gave a clear warning about the impending war. Regrettably our voices were not heard. At the State Duma elections in autumn 2021 we were shouted down on the one hand by state propagandists and on the other hand by the advocates of the concept of “smart voting”. As a result, only warmongers were elected to parliament, which is precisely what the Russian regime had wanted.

Yabloko has been conducting a sustained campaign for a ceasefire in the military actions between Russia and Ukraine ever since 24 February 2022. We have been leveraging every available platform and format to communicate to people why this is important.

Obviously, against the backdrop of total state propaganda and an atmosphere of fear, it is extremely hard to draft an agenda which contravenes the regime’s official policies. Meanwhile, for the time being the Russian regime has no intention of laying down arms, while the flywheel of repressions against anyone expressing a different view continues gaining momentum. At the same time, however, a number of people in Russia can see and understand what is actually happening and are capable of assessing the risks inherent in the continuation of military actions for their future and for the future of their children and grandchildren. And even the opinion polls being conducted in this oppressive atmosphere of propaganda and fear demonstrate that the majority of Russia’s citizens categorically oppose any continuation of the military actions.

Our call for an immediate ceasefire agreement is based on the professional assessments and analysis of military-political experts from different countries and also draws on decades of experience in politics, which enables us to have a better understanding of the crux and specifics of developments and assess potential outcomes correctly. Moreover, the correctness of our conclusions and respective proposals have already been corroborated repeatedly by real events – both on the battlefield and in political trends. And today everything is also abundantly clear to us: the situation is evolving in a way that any continuation of the military confrontation would lead to the destruction of Ukraine. The outcome for Russia is a separate topic. We have to stop right now. A ceasefire agreement must be concluded.

We are addressing here politicians – whether Russian, Ukrainian, European or American – anyone capable of adopting pivotal decisions. Let us repeat this once more –  if a ceasefire agreement is not concluded in the near future, then irreversible and possibly catastrophic events could happen, which would cancel out any possible future for millions of people. This is exactly what happened a little over 110  years ago on the eve of World War I.

We call on Russia’s citizens: take a look at what is going on – for a great deal depends on your understanding of developments.

Source

Grigory Yavlinsky

is Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko, Vice President of Liberal International, PhD in Economics, Professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.