Press Release, 22.02.2023, based on bfm.ru, rbc.ru, pravda.ru

Photo: Alexei Arbatov / Photo by the Yabloko Press Service

On 22 February, the State Duma approved the suspension of Russia’s participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. This happened the day after the announcement of Vladimir Putin’s message to the Federal Assembly. On 21 February, the President announced that Russia was suspending participation in the START III Treaty, which was signed in 2010 by Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama. Acad. Alexei Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a member of the Political Committee of the Yabloko party, believes that the United States can be expected to withdraw from the treaty in the near future.

It is not entirely clear what “suspending participation” means, Alexei Arbatov says in an interview with bfm.ru:

— There is no such term in the treaty, so I think that first it needs to be clarified. And I think that the US will now demand clarification of what suspension means. Inspections as elements of the system of control over the treaty, that is, checks of its implementation and compliance with it have not been carried out for a long time. Russia refused to resume them, arguing that American aid to Ukraine creates a bad political atmosphere in which Russia could not consider it possible to resume inspections.

If Russia’s announcement of a suspension of participation is reduced only to this, then this is an issue that the United States is likely to clarify with Russia. Russia had a number of claims to the United States regarding the dismantling of strategic weapons, and this is also subject to discussion.

But if the conditions for Russia’s return to full compliance with the treaty are cessation of Western support for Ukraine or the inclusion of the nuclear forces of France and Great Britain in the treaty, which was also said, then this is a dead end. And the United States, most likely, will simply denounce the treaty in the near future in full accordance with Article 14, that is, at a three months’ notice, and [then] withdrawal from the treaty.

At the same time, Alexei Arbatov does not rule out that there is still an opportunity to hold urgent consultations and clarify claims to each other. In an interview with RBC, he notes that if these claims are mainly of a technical nature, then they can be resolved very quickly.

— But I think that is not what the question was asked for. [It was asked for] in order to show to the West that its policy on the Ukrainian conflict does not suit Russia, and Russia uses all available means to express this displeasure, in particular, in the area where the United States is really very interested in interacting with Russia.

According to Arbatov, Russia’s demand that Britain and France join the treaty raises the question of China joining the New START treaty. If this is an indispensable condition, then it will be possible to say “goodbye” to the treaty, the Academician says.

Alexei Arbatov notes that for the United States, the START III Treaty is an important element of security, along with many others, and for Moscow this is perhaps the only lever of pressure on Washington.

It should be noted that the strategic offensive arms reduction treaty limits the number of nuclear warheads of each of the ballistic missiles.

According to Alexei Arbatov, now we can expect a build-up of strategic weapons: after the START III freeze, the parties will most likely start developing new systems. As for testing nuclear weapons at testing sites, it is still banned, Arbatov says, but there is a high probability that testing will resume.

As Kommersant paper recalls, the last nuclear test of the USSR was carried out in 1990, Russia have not tested nuclear weapons.

As for the START III Treaty, in 2021 its validity was extended until 5 February, 2026. Now its fate is in limbo.

ALEXEI ARBATOV

is a member of the Federal Political Committee of Yabloko. Head of the Centre for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Doctor of Historical Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences