On the future of Russia
Decision by the Yabloko Federal Political Committee of 24 March, 2023
Published on 7 April, 2023
War is a great catastrophe for our country and every person living in Russia. The special military operation on the territory of Ukraine has been determining the entire agenda of Russia’s life for more than a year now: the state machine has taken a run up and is rushing along the rails of military aggressive tasks, the economy is actually being transferred to serving military needs, private businesses are being forced to line up in the ranks of “voluntary” sponsors of new spending, and population is made to adapt to partial mobilisation. At the same time, any disagreement with the decisions of the authorities can bring, at a minimum, problems, and, at a maximum, a criminal article for expressing an opinion.
Today, the primary task is to conclude a ceasefire agreement and stop Russian society from being drawn into an endless military conflict.
However, something more than a military conflict has been happening to our country. Russia is facing an existential threat regarding the possible future of the country – not military, but civilisational.
Vladimir Putin’s message to the Federal Assembly, his speech at the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and, finally, the new concept of foreign policy approved by him clearly demonstrated the main idea of the authorities: the special military operation and these policies are for a long time, Russia rejects and turns away from Europe and the West as a whole, and a part of Asia where Russia supposedly feels natural and comfortable is in its priority now.
This is the real new image of Russia in the world. It is no coincidence that propaganda is so actively pushing through the idea of an alliance between Russia and communist China, which eloquently proves the totalitarian nature of the convictions of the Kremlin nomenklatura. The recent events – both the proposals of the government of the People’s Republic of China on the Ukrainian crisis, and the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow – have shown that China sees itself as the only competitor (not yet an adversary) on par with to the United States and the West as a whole, and the Chinese “comrades” are ready to determine the place for Russia as that of a resource partner. This is what “imperial Eurasianism” will be like…
The top leadership of the country is spreading in society the thesis that is beneficial for itself, the thesis about the “normalisation” of military actions, their routine and habitual nature, and, therefore, their absolute permissibility and alleged usefulness for the country and society as a whole (“the economy is growing”, “sanctions are not terrible”, etc.). A monstrous deformation of society that no one could image before is taking place, when continuous news of human deaths becomes habitual.
The special military operation contributes to the establishment, development and deepening of the dictatorship within Russia, the triumph of the police state, the permanent reduction and elimination of political and civil rights and freedoms, and the growth of repression.
At the same time, the development of the country will slow down, demodernisation and government regulation will intensify, the technological gap will become permanent, and as a result, the quality of life will begin to decline, the younger generation will realise the lack of prospects and will seek to realise their talents and opportunities outside of Russia.
In other words, the operation in Ukraine creates the basis for a radical civiliыational transformation of Russia from a modern European country into some kind of Asian nationalist entity.
We see an attempt to divert the country from the main path of human civilisation, pull Russia out of European civilisation, and impose on new generations of Russians, under the guise of preserving tradition, some postmodernist fantasies that have nothing to do with the history and culture of our country.
A refusal to develop the state and society on the basis of European values that have become universal, from the priority of rights and freedoms accepted (by the whole world, and not just by the West!) after the Second World War is openly declared in the country. The Stalinist state is being reproduced at an accelerated pace, with its main feature – the dominance of the state over the individual.
They are trying to build a new Russian state ideology on the fact that “the doctrine of human rights is used to destroy the sovereignty of states, justify Western political, financial, economic and ideological domination” (Vladimir Putin). The demonstrative denunciation of the conventions of the Council of Europe, the rejection of the principles of the Bologna process of creating a common European space of higher education, the course towards ideological education of young people from early childhood – all these are components of the course towards a civilisational U-turn in Russia.
Christian values and universal moral principles are being replaced by some strange declarations of a revanchist and imperialist nature.
This is an artificial bet on a new division of the world and an attempt to change global leadership. The Russian regime is planning a jump into the “Chinese world”, to the other side of the split, without thinking about its meaning and prospects, and, finally, about the correlation between the real human and economic resources of Russia and China.
China aims to dominate the world, first of all, in the South-East Asia. But isn’t it obvious that the new confrontation will be global. The complacency of many Western experts and representatives of elites, references to the fact that China is included into the global system of economic and political relationships and will not sacrifice them, the conviction that only the Russian elite has remained in the past and does not correspond to modern realities, and the Chinese nationalist communists can be trusted more – all this represents a dangerous manifestation of thoughtlessness in politics.
Another direction of movement offered to Russia on a global level is the path of Iran and fundamentalists of all stripes, where the main goal is to destroy the former world order, no matter at what cost and what the consequences will be. The fact that one of the two major nuclear powers is at the head of this trend represents a huge danger to the world.
The consequence of these policies will be and is already becoming the destruction of society poisoned by propaganda, lies, fear and hatred.
The following prospects are obvious:
– degradation of the economy, science and culture, isolated from the advanced countries;
– technological backwardness of the economy, preservation and strengthening of its dependence on fossil energy resources;
– further decline in the living standards of the population and their dependence on the state;
– cultural impoverishment caused by the violent rupture of natural ties, artificial limitation and distortion of cultural space;
– the growth of Russia’s economic and political dependence on the countries that are many times larger in population and consider the territory of Russia as a source of resources.
The regime will rely on populism and new technologies in advancing along the path of its civilisational U-turn. Technologies will be used for surveillance, control and manipulation, including the “divide and conquer” principle.
The key issue for the citizens of Russia is to realise the connection between the path imposed by the authorities and the loss of the national future.
Without understanding this connection, the growth of protest moods, dissatisfaction with corrupt officials and the President will be used in confrontation within the nomenklatura groups in their own interests for approaching power or seizing it.
In other words, again, like the Bolsheviks in 1917, they want to redirect Russia from the natural path of human development to the dead end of the civilisational periphery. This time somewhere in the direction of Eurasianism and something like Slavic paganism.
Our choice is fundamentally different: our ideas about the future are focused on the person. It is the person who is the subject of politics and the main goal of state building.
This does not at all mean striving for unlimited individualism. On the contrary, social solidarity and mutual support are extremely important for Russia as a country of European culture. However, we are talking about mutual support based on love for one’s neighbour. Throwing people into the furnace of political and geopolitical ambitions is the exact opposite of social solidarity. Until there is no system focused on the individual and his development and a really strong and responsible civil society, words about patriotism and national goals will remain a cover for thieves and scoundrels who appropriate national wealth, for whom war is a good earner.
In the 21st century, the position and well-being of the state and its citizens do not depend on territories or even natural resources. We live in an era where human capital plays a key role. The future of the nation depends on people, their freedom, their creativity and education.
Today it is important to preserve values: Christian, European, humanistic. It is also necessary to resist populism and not to exchange values for momentary tactical schemes, not to replace politics with political technologies. Nationalist and communist ideologies are unacceptable – these are the main sources of modern National Bolshevism.
We see the future of Russia together with Ukraine, Belarus and other countries of the post-Soviet space in Greater Europe with transparent borders between countries, equal rights for citizens of all participating countries, and common legislation on basic issues.
The global crisis, which is really visible in the world, does not mean that there exists some real alternative to the values of European civilisation. The crisis is not about that other values should take the place of European values. The “multipolarity” invented by the Russian nomenclature in the modern global world is either just an unrealisable fantasy, or, in the case of its attempted practical implementation, chaos and war.
The essence of the matter is to bring European, universal human values and institutions related to them to a new qualitative level, corresponding to new digital technologies, artificial intelligence and the real modern global world of the 21st century.
This is how we see our goal and we consider one of the main tasks of the democratic opposition to develop and implement an alternative strategic concept for the development of Russia – re-establishment of the foundations of statehood, democratisation of society, making it free from the militaristic and imperial ideology.
The Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko will form a strategic alternative plan for the development of Russia in the main spheres of life of the country and society, based on guarantees of ensuring rights and freedoms, social justice and equality of opportunity for the majority, and normalisation of relations with the world.
Grigory Yavlinsky,
Chairman of the Yabloko Federal Political Committee
is Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko, Vice President of Liberal International,
PhD in Economics,
Professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Posted: April 10th, 2023 under Economy, Foreign policy, Governance, Human Rights, Political Committee Decisions, Russia-China Relations, Russia-Eu relations, Russia-Ukraine relations, Без рубрики.