Telegram blog post by Nikolai Rybakov, 6.11.2024

Photo from social media

Donald Trump has become the 47th President of the United States. Well, such a president, it is ok… Before the 2016 elections, he pays to a porn star for keeping silence about their affair. And where does he pay it from? From the presidential election fund. Simply brilliant… And when he is then tried for it, it is, of course, “fighting against him”. A good example to follow…

And what is there so unexpected? Populism is becoming increasingly more attractive, and institutionalised (i.e., boring) politics, the politics of values ​​and professional approach are out of favour today. Crude, flamboyant phrases continue to gain momentum in the world. If one said or wrote something stupid, but did it in a gaudy manner – one would get a lot of likes. They will discuss him. If one didn’t say it – well, sorry, it’s your own fault. And the fact that politicians, especially those re-elected, should report on the fulfillment of their previous promises – this sounds almost like nonsense, even probably funny to some.

Trump brought disorder and chaos to the highest echelons of politics, to the highest post for which elections are held – the post of the American president, and did it immediately. One could declare something today and do exactly the opposite tomorrow. One could demonstrate one direction today, and the opposite tomorrow. This is the problem. He can declare anything and it will not mean anything.

One of Trump’s loudest promises is to put an end to wars. A good cause, but it is precisely this approach to politics, like his, that provokes wars. When all sides flirt with populism, are stubborn and live in the past, peace does not come. Yes, the goal itself is clear and necessary, but his new methods and their effectiveness, as well as sincerity, are yet to be tested by all of us.

It is not only about wars – just recollect Trump’s actions during the pandemic (until he himself fell ill), the fight with the UN (especially with the Human Rights Council), and his position on global climate change. The United States plays such a role in the world that a sincere and inspired politician at the head of the country could lead many people and unite them for good deeds. But it is Trump who will lead somewhere.

Although, he, certainly, was able to change in some ways. In November 2020, after the previous elections, which Trump lost, Grigory Yavlinsky published an article “Trump Wins Even in Defeat” (https://www.yavlinsky.ru/en/article/trump-wins-even-in-defeat/):

“Donald Trump turned out to be too ignorant, too undisciplined and at the same time too thin-skinned to be effective in politics for a long time. He proved to be colourful populist, but did not have enough political talent and competence to manage effectively and keep his promises. <…> At the same time, Trump managed to achieve one key goal – he “expanded the boundaries” and prepared the grounds for the election of the next autocrat and populist as President in the USA.”

So Trump was able to change so much that he himself became this new autocrat and populist. He expanded these boundaries for himself and prepared for the new himself to come to power in 2024. Already more seasoned, even more hardened by lawsuits and storming the Capitol.

True, the military conflict with Ukraine remains the key issue for the future. But what Trump will say or do on this issue in December or April, neither today’s Trump, nor the December Trump, nor the April Trump know. But there is hope – the change of team leaves a possibility, albeit small, for change, and everyone should take advantage of this to conclude a ceasefire agreement and stop killing people on both sides. We are far from believing that Trump really wants and can do this, there is little hope for this, but a small chance may still open up.