Grigory Yavlinsky’s Live Journal, 02/03/2014

The Decision adopted on the 1st of March by the Federation Council on the president’s request represents a gross political error entailing extremely dangerous consequences.

The intentions to bring troops to Ukraine and start armed hostilities of any scale there are without doubt unacceptable and criminal.

To say nothing of the war – even a continuous uttering of this word makes the situation one more step worse. Fratricide must not be allowed. A war with Ukraine means for our people a civil war. In Balaklava people came into the streets yesterday and stood as a living wall between the Russian military and the Ukrainian border guards.

There has been no evidence of the alleged “threat to the life of Russian citizens” in the Crimea and other regions of Ukraine. People there do not want to split from Ukraine or, moreover, any invasion of the Russian troops, – neither in the Crimea or in Eastern Ukraine. Even Crimean [special police division] Berkut refused from Russian passports [offered to them] – only nine out of 700 officers agreed to change citizenship.

Russia’s political leaders are seeking further destabilization of the situation aiming at positioning Ukraine as a “failed state” and abolishing its obligations on maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The refusal of the Russian leadership to negotiate with the government formed in Kiev and the statement of the State Duma of the 1st of March, 2014, are the evidence of this. I should also note that such a position with regard to Ukraine is expressed against the background of Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as full-fledged states.

Certainly, the Russian-speaking population of the Crimea and other regions fear nationalists and radicals who have played a big role in the change of power in Kiev, and do not trust the present central government. However, these are the problems to be resolved within the framework of everyday life and do not require a military intervention. If we examine this issue from the point of view of justification of the threat of invasion, then in this aspect the role of nationalists and fascists in Ukraine has been disproportionately exaggerated.

The last stand has not been crossed yet, and I still hope that we are dealing here with, let us say, a very unfortunate misunderstanding or a fantasy about ‘another way’ of bluffing, rather than with any kind of a thought-over plan.

However, on behalf of military-oligarchic groups this is a very dangerous gambling. It has already heated the situation and created conditions for provocations that may launch an irreversible chain of events.

Hysteria has been already developing in the country. Reports from e-media give us BIG LIES both about Ukraine and Russia, and these reports are, as a rule, deliberately instigated. Governors, MPs, officials and other people are switching to the propaganda and lies.

The persons around Putin wishing to unleash a war for their personal happiness are disgusting.

Today the Kiev government needs huge self-possession and a continuous dialogue with the international community, sharp reduction of the role of radical-nationalist elements and forces, exceptional self-command and caution so that to avoid provocations and accusations in initiating the use of force.

These developments represent a very hard maturity test for the government formed in Kiev. It is difficult to pass it. However, it is the only way for the government to prove its right to the state power – by demonstrating its wisdom, dignity, self-restraint and realism. This is the secret of the future victory of the Ukrainian state.