Grigory Yavlinsky’s web-site, 25.03.2024

Photo by Alexei Nazarov, Kommersant

The terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall is an absolutely monstrous and brutal crime that has no justification. I express my deepest condolences to the families of the victims and a speedy recovery to the wounded.

As of the evening of 24 March, 2024, questions about Moscow’s official political position regarding the reasons for what happened and the immediate future remain open.

Terrorist threats against Russia have long been known: they come from Afghanistan, Central Asia, the regions of the North Caucasus, and Syria. Behind these threats are ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the Taliban – Islamist radical religious and political paramilitary movements banned in many countries of the world as terrorist organisations.

The senseless ten-year war waged by the USSR in Afghanistan with huge casualties among the local population, the long and bloody war in Chechnya, and Russia’s participation in the civil war in Syria with continuous air strikes against ISIS – all this consolidated the jihadists against our country. Since September 2015, direct participation of the Russian Armed Forces in the war in Syria has again significantly increased the risk of terrorist attacks for Russia.

Today, one of the most pressing questions is who is behind the perpetrators of the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall – is it ISIS or, in this case, does it have accomplices and sponsors? Who paid for this terrorist attack? Who is its initiator and ideologist? Who might benefit from this?

The Kremlin is certainly looking for answers to these questions, and a lot depends on what official answers will be given and what statements will be made.

However, the situation will most likely worsen sharply as a result of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall. Now the situation can develop in any direction. This is where the key risks lie.

The loss of guidelines in modern geopolitics is fraught with serious dangers. We are virtually at the point where, if we cross it, we will face an uncontrollable and irreversible situation. Therefore, we must stop guessing what might happen, and make vital decisions.

First of all, it is necessary to immediately sign a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. We need to radically reconsider tactical and strategic, real and potential threats. We must stop the stupid hysterical accusations of calling to  “surrender” and “raising the white flag”, it is time to end this baby talk about “victory on the battlefield” and other nonsense, which will then be followed by the usual “well, who could have thought about?..”

The danger of a major war is approaching the world. The terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall is an event from the Black Swan concept, which could become modern Sarajevo, like 110 years ago, a trigger for a new world war. Just look back at the past events.

Grigory Yavlinsky

is Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko, Vice President of Liberal International, PhD in Economics, Professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.