Statement by Grigory Yavlinsky, 11.10.2023

Photo: A building damaged by rocket attacks on Tel Aviv / Photo by Vyacheslav Tatarovsky, RIA Novosti

War has come to Israel. Terror, which seemed to have been more or less minimised for two decades with the help of a sound military doctrine and the efforts of professional intelligence services and diplomats, broke out with unexpected force and in an absolutely ugly form. It turned out that all the previous security measures were absolutely insufficient and the modern political model in general was not ready for the new circumstances.

Obviously, now the main task is to rescue more than a hundred kidnapped Israelis, including old people, women, and children, from the Hamas captivity. But only responsible strategic decisions can curb the terrorist threat for years to come.

Most likely, only later, after the war, Israel will they conduct a thorough investigation into the reasons for what happened – how the intelligence services considered one of the best in the world could not foresee such a large-scale terrorist attack, what responsibility for this failure lies with the Netanyahu cabinet, what on the army, and what on intelligence. And how does this generally relate to the systemic problems of Israeli domestic politics that have become more acute in recent years?

Definitely, Iran also plays a role in what is happening, which for decades has loudly declared a mortal threat to Israel as one of its main political priorities and has recently demonstrated its readiness for intensive tactical cooperation with Hamas, despite doctrinal differences.

It is doubtful that Russia, now dependent on Iranian supplies for its special military operation in Ukraine, will put any real pressure on Tehran to counter Iran-sponsored terrorism on Israeli soil. Moreover, the Kremlin will not, under the current circumstances, support any actions of the United States, a long-time ally of the Israelis. All this, both indirectly and directly, also strengthens the position of terrorists attacking Israel.

Certainly, Israel will defend itself. And, certainly, the state will solve pressing internal political problems. But all this will be later. Now the price is already exorbitant, perhaps even unprecedented in the entire history of the country. It is unclear how Israeli society will cope with such a trauma, what fate awaits hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza, many of whom may not support Hamas, or what will happen to the Middle East in general. It is likely that the situation will develop according to a very dangerous spontaneous scenario, since there are no signs that the USA, Russia, Turkey, the EU and NATO, as well as China and India, will be able to act jointly or at least in a coordinated manner in the foreseeable future in the interests of the world as a whole and peaceful population in the Middle East region.

What is going on? The world is beginning to very noticeably experience the consequences of large-scale political entropy: the main state and international political institutions of the mid-20th century have come into conflict with modernity, are in a state of crisis, have lost their effectiveness and are gradually ceasing to work. The main thing is lost when the value content of politics and existence in general – human life and freedom – is replaced by dangerous political fuss and demagoguery about “geopolitics”, the world order, “states-civilizations”, “multipolarity”, endless selfish searches for some enemies and beneficiaries and etc.

People and their lives are turning into expendables. Politicians, in pursuit of maintaining power and popularity in social networks, pursue their own goals, absolutely far-fetched in the context of the mid-21st century, and deliberately sacrifice the lives, destinies, and future of people.

We express our sympathy and human solidarity to the people of Israel, who once again find themselves on the front line of defence against terrorism.

Grigory Yavlinsky,

Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of Yabloko

Grigory Yavlinsky

is Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko, Vice President of Liberal International, PhD in Economics, Professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.