Zhivoi Gvozd, 8.04.2025

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Negotiations on a ceasefire are underway. This is a very complex process in the current situation. There will certainly be intermittences, breakdowns, contradictory statements and explanations. However, the main thing is that negotiations to achieve a ceasefire are, in principle, inevitable and have no alternative.

Unfortunately, the negotiations began very late – they were supposed to begin in late 2022 – early 2023. Then the circumstances arose for holding such negotiations. This would have stopped killing of people and could have saved the future of Ukraine. However, Kyiv categorically did not want this, and the United States and Europe did their best to push Ukraine to continue hostilities. Moscow did not show such initiatives either. Now everything has become extremely complicated, but there is still no other solution.

A real truce and peace negotiations will take place in the infinitely distant future. But no one – neither Russia, nor Ukraine, nor Europe, nor the United States – will come out the same from what has happened and is happening today. It is not only because of the direct consequences of heavy and large-scale combats. The main change is that the old world order is falling apart and no longer works: international institutions do not work, interstate relations and diplomacy are collapsing, and globalisation seems to be shrinking. Therefore, after a ceasefire is achieved, all negotiations and all discussions will have to be conducted basing on fundamentally new circumstances and according to different rules.

The most important condition for meaningful peace talks should be the idea of ​​some positive future. We need to see at least the general principles of the world order in which we would like to live further in the 21st century. After all, it is clear that Russia and Ukraine will always be part of Europe. Proceeding from this vision, we need to build a new system of European security that will take into account the interests of all European countries, including Russia and Ukraine. Based on this understanding, we can also discuss new economic relations in Greater Europe, especially given the actions of both the United States and China that are difficult to predict.

It is already necessary to comprehend the prospects of the mid-21st century, because without this we will not be able to get out of the current chaos and ensure a peaceful future for Ukraine, Russia and all of Europe.

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Grigory Yavlinsky spoke on the Zhivoi Gvozd (Living Nail) YouTube channel about what is delaying the ceasefire negotiations, Donald Trump’s economic policy, and why the world absolutely needs an idea of ​​the future.