The Analytical Centre of Yabloko, 14.08.2026

Photo: Nikolai Rybakov answering questions from the press outside the Supreme Court on 10 August 2026, after the ruling was announced / Photo by the Yabloko Press Service

On 10 August, the Supreme Court of Russia upheld a claim brought by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party to cancel Yabloko’s registration for the State Duma elections. The party’s federal list had previously been registered by the Central Electoral Commission and, following the drawing of lots, had taken second place on the ballot, directly after United Russia.

In July and August, support for the party — which campaigns under the slogan “For Peace and Freedom!” — surged sharply. Yabloko became the most talked-about party of the summer, and party Chairman Nikolai Rybakov instantly became an idol among young people and on social media.

The outlet Faridaily reported that a closed-door July poll from FOM (the Public Opinion Fund) July showed Yabloko with 5.5% support nationwide, and 11% in both Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that, according to one poll by a well-known polling agency, Yabloko’s rating stood at 9.38% at the end of July. Other outlets discovered that this poll had been commissioned by one of the parliamentary parties.

But even according to open polls by polling agencies that work with the authorities, Yabloko’s electoral rating crossed the five-percent threshold.

Graph: 5.3% – FOM’s poll of 7-9 August, indicating the share of voters who had made up their minds

5.1% – VTsIOM’s poll of 3-8 August, indicating the share of voters who had made up their minds

9.4% – a closed survey conducted for one of the parliamentary political parties

15-20% – the percentage Yabloko could get at elections, according to the forecast of the ExtremeScan independent research group

According to a FOM poll conducted on 7–9 August, 4% of all respondents said they intended to vote for Yabloko, and 5.3% of those who had made up their minds.

According to a VTsIOM poll conducted on 7–9 August, the combined share of voters for non-parliamentary parties reached 12.7%. Since the start of this year, Yabloko’s share among those intending to vote for non-parliamentary parties has stood at around a third. If this is still the case, the party’s electoral rating according to this poll is at least 5.1% among those who have decided and intend to vote. In reality, however, the growth in respondents for non-parliamentary parties chiefly reflects Yabloko’s rising popularity — meaning the party’s support crossed a threshold significantly higher than the five-percent barrier.

According to a forecast by the independent research group ExtremeScan, as the only party with an anti-war identity, Yabloko could have won up to 20% of the vote in the September elections.

“Had Yabloko not been removed from the elections, in terms of articulating an anti-war position on the electoral field, we would have had only two camps: Yabloko and everyone else. In such a configuration, Yabloko would have gained an absolute advantage over its competitors in the fight for the anti-war electorate. And had the ‘party for ending the war’ remained on the ballot, it would have been entirely realistic for it to win at least 18–20%,” the ExtremeScan report states.

Being listed second on the ballot, directly after the United Russia party, created a stark contrast for voters — a powerful basis for choice — reinforcing the psychological and political impact of being the only party in Russia advocating a ceasefire agreement.

Over the course of the election campaign, Yabloko’s second position on the ballot had every chance of translating into second place in the actual vote.

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