Grigory Yavlinsky’s web-site, 6.01.2023

Photo: A Christmas ball “The Apotheosis of War” on the web-site of the online store Printio.ru. The picture is by the Russian artist Vasily Vereshchagin “The Apotheosis of War”, 1871. There is an inscription on the frame: “Dedicated to all the great conquerors of the past, the present and the future”.

Dozens of thousands of dead and wounded (the true scope is unknown), and millions of refugees – such are the main things brought by 2022. This is the most terrible and irreparable. This is what will forever remain as the key recollection of the past year. I can’t call this the year’s results. But does the past year actually have results? I don’t think so. The past year is not only terrible, but also significant. There are lessons of the year, rather than results.

The first lesson. The year 2022 showed in practice what kind of political system had been created in Russia. This political system inevitably led to what happened on 24 February 2022 (see “Russia-2022: Underlying Causes”, June 2022). And it is not about an individual at the top of this system – there will be no such thing as “someone else will come and everything will be ok”. The essence and root of the problem lies in the type of political system in modern Russia: which is neo-Stalinist, neo-totalitarian, based on the merger of state, property and business. That is why our country has neither separation of powers, nor an independent court, nor a real parliament, nor media independent of the state, nor public organisations, nor influential opposition parties, nor trade unions. There can be no real society in such a state. As long as this is so, a huge country with nuclear weapons is subject to the unlimited autocratic power of one person. In combination with virtually unlimited natural resources, such a system always leads to war (see “The Results of the Year: Shame”, January 2022,  and “Economic Growth without Development Leads to War”, November 2015).

The second lesson. The past year clearly demonstrated that, at least until a truly democratic law-governed state is created in our country, it is vital for the majority of citizens to participate in politics. As it was, for example, in the late 1980s – early 1990s. What does it mean? This means, for example, that in the past 30 years it was necessary to meaningfully use electoral opportunities: to go to the polls (whatever the elections were), vote according to one’s conscience, rather than according to a scheme or an order, explain the importance and the meaning of voting to the widest possible audience, directly control elections, and achieve real results. This also means not participating in dangerous clownery such as “Smart Voting” for the communists – supporters of the war, not voting “for anyone but …”, not supporting the so-called “Nakh-Nakh” [voting against all] or other idiotic and extremely harmful actions, but defend and promote, at all levels, our own values and value orientations, without swapping them for pragmatic algorithms, not to succumb to populism and pseudo-political nonsense that filled social networks and, deliberately or out of incompetence, replaced a substantive agenda. People had to face the truth: the current Russian political system had been wasting their lives. It is a separate discussion what participation in politics means as of today (see “Moral Choice”, November 2022).

The third lesson. The events of the year once again made it clear – through the death of people already – what catastrophes are brought about by many years of continuous lies at the state level, corruption, faith in their own propaganda, and the desire of the top officials to hear only what they like and select their key stuff accordingly.

The fourth lesson. The Russian economy did not collapse from massive sanctions in 2022. At least for now. This demonstrates how high, with such economic opportunities and resources, the quality of life in our country could have been not just for 20 per cent of the population, but for at least 80 per cent, if the state-political system were focused on the well-being of citizens and modern development, rather than imperial purposes of the 19th century model.

The fifth lesson. Despite the unprecedented large-scale and serious sanctions, extremely tough rhetoric and assessments, the West continued to buy Russian hydrocarbons for most of 2022, fearing the discontent of the citizens of their countries due to economic difficulties and rising energy prices. By the end of past year, Russia’s current account surplus amounted to more than USD 220 billion, twice as much as in the previous year. This foreign currency helped the Kremlin to finance what was happening, despite all the loud statements and gestures of the West. Therefore, the point is not who and how criticizes us and imposes sanctions, or who and how praises us and helps us with advice and loans (as was the case in the 1990s). It is important that we pursue our own honest, moral and professional policies, corresponding to the time and the future of our country.

The sixth lesson. Until Russia creates a system which is fundamentally different from the present one, — that is, a modern European-style democratic political system based on moral values — everything will be like in 2022, and possibly much worse.

The seventh lesson. The key lesson of the year is the absence of results. Everything is ahead. 2022 has opened such a perspective that we understand that this is only the beginning. Today, none of the main actors wants to stop the war. And, in my opinion, no one here or there or in the world understands the consequences of continuing what has been happening. It is a pity. The price will be incredibly high. War is very different now from what it was 80 years ago, and the essence of what is called peace has also changed.

2022 taught our country tragic lessons, and this year has brought no results. Yet. Everything still lies ahead…

Grigory Yavlinsky

is Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko, Vice President of Liberal International,

PhD in Economics,

Professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.