Grigory Yavlinsky’s web-site, 24.03.2021

Photo: Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putin. Photo by Alexei Druzhinin / RIA Novosti

On 2 October, 2018, Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent journalist for the Washington Post, was killed and dismembered at the Saudi Arabian Сonsulate in Istanbul. Recently, US National Intelligence accused the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad bin Salman, of organising the assassination.

In an interview with the ABC television channel, which Russia does not stop discussing, US President Joe Biden spoke not only about Vladimir Putin, but also about Prince Salman. However, the latter was more fortunate. First, the journalist for some reason did not ask Biden if he considered the Crown Prince to be a murderer. And second, the American President himself has unequivocally clarified that Mohammed bin Salman ordered the murder, but he was “our man who ordered the murder”. That is, “he is a nasty piece of work, but he is our nasty piece of work”. And the US has never persecuted their friends (heads of allied states), the American President added. Further Joe Biden spoke of the conditions of kind of possible forgiveness, that is, the price that, from the point of view of the United States, the Saudi allies must pay for the assassination.

Speaking of Vladimir Putin, the American President also promised that “he would pay”. But not for Crimea and Donbass, not for the murder of the [opposition] politician Boris Nemtsov by the walls of the Kremlin. Putin should pay for the alleged assistance to Trump in the fight against Biden in the past elections, that is, for kind of meddling into American affairs. It is clear that Russia is not Saudi Arabia, and Putin is not the Prince, and Biden, certainly, is not an ally. But he has a nuclear arsenal and many other unpleasant things. So the logic of the “deal” will be applied to Russia as well. This is Biden’s pragmatism, “realpolitik”.

But the threat of an impending “requital” (Biden did not specify which one, only hinted: “you will see soon”) is insignificant for the Kremlin. Putin knows that it won’t be him who will pay, it is the citizens of Russia who will pay with the further drop of their living standards, and whom Putin’s system considers to be their own resource.

Biden’s “realpolitik” fully coincides with Putin’s understanding of the world. In the same interview, the US President says that, in spite of everything, the Russian President and I have common interests, we need to be able to “walk and chew gum at the same time”. This is precisely how Putin regards democracy: it is such a gum that one can chew as much as one likes, but this should not interfere with “walking” – that is, building of a mafia-corporate state, arranging adventures, tyrannising and destroying opponents. At the same time, relations with the Americans can be maintained proceeding from common interests that are really sensitive to the United States. And there are many such interests: the extension by the Americans of the Strategic Arms Treaty, and Biden’s energy and climate policies, directly related to the world oil prices, and the arrangement of the system of power in Afghanistan, which was discussed in Moscow on 18 March with the participation of a high-ranking US representative and the Taliban banned in Russia. And everything said by the American President, in fact, does not contradict this understanding of things.

There are, certainly, huge differences. But they lie in a different field. On 11 March, President Biden approved a $ 1.9 trillion package of measures to support the economy in the face of the pandemic, launching the implementation of his own “American Rescue Plan”. It is assumed that the funds will go to broaden the national vaccination programme, the safe opening of schools, support for small businesses, a weekly federal unemployment allowance of $ 300 and child benefits up to $ 3.600. Large-scale payments to Americans in need of support are also planned. CNN estimates that about 90% of American families will receive some kind of assistance. This is how economics is understood in America.

In Russia, everything is different. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Russian government has allocated 86 times less funds to support the economy and the population than the US government. True, everything is clear, the population of the United States is almost twice as large, the volume of GDP for Americans is 14 times higher. But not 86 times!

Vladimir Putin has repeatedly made it clear that the main priority of his policy is the creation of a “separate civilisation” in Russia and confrontation with the West. For him, this means the restoration, in one form or another, of territories and of the “superpower”, similar to the USSR with its zones of influence in the world. Hence there come Crimea, Donbass, Syria and other foreign policy adventures. And so that they would not interfere from the inside – here come the demolition of the Constitution, the gradual destruction of all rights and freedoms, repression, and physical elimination of opponents of the authorities. Here are the milestones on the road to the cherished goals. And such goal-setting is not centred around a man at all. Putin, in principle, solves other problems.

The economy in Putin’s system is nothing more than a means for mobilising resources to build a superpower and continuous confrontation with opponents – almost with the whole world, as it turns out now. The reserves accumulated over the fat years of [high] oil and gas [prices] are intended precisely for this: critical imports, emergency import substitution, supplying the army, sabotage operations and the fight against enemy saboteurs, intelligence and propaganda, that is, everything that is needed to fight the external and the internal enemy, rather than combat economic recession or dropping incomes of the population (see “After Lockdown”, May 2020). And people are just a resource for the realisation of these super-power ambitions. That is where the 86 times come from. And in these circumstances, it is easy to guess who is called what.

Moreover, both Americans and Europeans see this preparation for confrontation and, perhaps, even understand what it might lead to. Once can’t say that they are happy with it. Nevertheless, they are not ready to take real steps to prevent these threats – they do not know what exactly needs to be done, and so far, they do not really want to know.

Biden is so outspoken about Putin (despite the Russian nuclear arsenal) because in the modern world Russia is peripheral due to the weakness of its economy, which is weakened even more by the current political course of the Kremlin.

This is not an indicator of the priority of the Russian direction in the American foreign policy, but quite the opposite. After all, Biden said that he would talk to Putin sometime later – when the turn came.

What conclusions can we draw in Russia? Some believe that it follows from what Joe Biden said that the current policies of the Kremlin will scare the West, lead to its positive renewal and consolidation, the pressure on Moscow will intensify and, as a result, Putin’s corporate-mafia regime will collapse.

I see no reason to hope for such a development. Joe Biden’s interview very vividly demonstrated the “realpolitik” of the generalised West. The present West will “chew and walk at the same time” – talk about democracy, scold corruption, threaten, impose sanctions (excluding space, of course), use strong expressions (“Do you think he is a killer? -“Uh-huh. I do.”) and “doing business as usual” without encroaching on truly sensitive areas such as commodity trading (oil, gas, aluminum, etc.).

The West needs economic stability and will not make life difficult for itself, especially in the aftermath of the pandemic. Pragmatic interests, the pursuit of profit and income growth will dominate considerations of morality and political ethics, “realpolitik” and “realeconomik” will remain mainstream.

Therefore, neither Joe Biden nor the West in general will help Russia in any way in normalising life, building a law governed state, restoring lawfulness, justice, freedom and political competition with a changing government and inviolable private property. It was in the past, when Russia used to have such friends as a friend Helmut and a friend Bill. Now Russia’s friends are comrade Lukashenko and Recep Pasha. So, no matter of “whoever calls names is called that himself”, we must rely only on ourselves – we have to re-establish the state exclusively on our own and build our country.

Source

Grigory Yavlinsky

is Chairman of the Federal Political Committee of the Russian United Democratic Party YABLOKO, Vice President of Liberal International, PhD in Economics, Professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.