By Grigory Yavlinsky, 29.12.2015

The Ladmarks

The main events of the year were political reprisals against the dissenting: the murder of Boris Nemtsov and severe poisoning of Vladimir Kara-Murza who only miraculously escaped death.

The point of this year – the toughest pressure on the civil society for the past 30 years, the stake on the use of force in domestic and foreign polices – was focused in the very beginning [of the year]: the tragedy of February 27 [the murder of Boris Nemtsov].

Boris Nemtsov was a victim of the war. Russia was involved in the war, which turned into daily practices everywhere. It only seems that the war has now moved from Ukraine to Syria. Its center is in Moscow – in the way of thinking and behaviour of the authorities, the propaganda poisoning and corrupting the national consciousness, and deepening of the split in the society.

One of the operations of this war was the attack [by the Russian authorities] against Russia’s citizens. This year saw the adoption of repressive laws empowering the law enforcement and, in particular, [broadening their rights to] the use of weapons. The law allowing putting people into prison for violating the rules of holding rallies began to be applied. Galina Shirshina [Mayor of Petrozavodsk, Karelia] and Lev Shlosberg [regional MP from the Pkov region] elected by people were boldly ousted from the power bodies.

The developments took such a way that the feeling of that Russia’s loneliness in the world and insecurity of its citizens in front of numerous external and internal threats, from which the state is unable to protect them, has been growing.

It is symbolic that recently the murder of Boris Nemtsov has been announced not related to his public activities.

The symbolic murder of a prominent politician, the war in Ukraine and Syria drew a line under the era of the post-Soviet period, which began in 1991, and demonstrated a final failure of the entire post-Soviet modernisation. For the quarter of a century Russia has failed to embark on the creation of a modern democratic state and a functioning market economy.

In 2015, the country was rapidly moving in the opposite direction.

The Steps Towards a Precipice

Russia’s isolation in the world resulting from its gross and deliberate violation of international law took place. (See: “A Conscious Choice?” By Grigory Yavlinsky. Novaya Gazeta, 06.02.2015);

The blows hit on the Russian economy by its own official state policies, the inability of the country’s leadership to adequately and professionally assess the situation and act. In the conditions of such a regime, positive changes or reforms are impossible in principle. (See “The Economy Cannot Survive These Political Decisions” by Grigory Yavlinsky. Novaya Gazeta, 09.02.2015 ; “The Reform Is Impossible” by Grigory Yavlinsky. Vedomosti, 8.11.2015; “The Economic Strategy for the Peripheral System” Grigory Yavlinsky. Journal of the New Economic Association, No 2, p. 173; Speech at the Economics Faculty of Moscow State University, 17.11.2015).

The abrupt increase of vulnerability of Russian citizens after Russia entered the war in Syria over terrorism and the danger of armed conflicts. People were left alone, because the state showed that it was fighting against the West, helping Bashar al-Assad, and did not protect its citizens, did not use the possibilities to gain strong allies and create an effective anti-terrorist coalition. (See “After Paris, 11/13” by Grigory Yavlinsky. Vedomosti, 16.11.2015).

Accelerated degradation of the Russian elites, Russia has been steadily moving towards a big crisis and chaos throughout 2015. (See “The Path That Does Not Exist” by Grigory Yavlinsky. Novaya Gazeta, 19.10.2015. “Yavlinsky: Every Blind Man Thinks That the One Ahead of Him Is Not Blind. But All of Them Are Blind”, TV channel Rain, 24.11.2015).

A global change of cycles – technological, economic, financial and social – has been taking place in the world. But in Russia this even has not been discussed in practical terms (there are only a few publications): neither alternative energy, nor private space [flights], not virtual currency and related technologies… A new competition has started between the leading economies of the world, but Russia, with its archaic economic structure and totally dependent on exports of natural resources has extremely weak starting conditions. The emerging new paradigm of the world economic development leaves Russia behind, in the circle of the less developed countries with no prospects to further change his position.

Forecast for 2016

— low oil prices (See “Why Oil Can Drop to USD 20 per Barrel”, RBC, 16.01.2015);

— economic recession, the budget, the financial and the banking crisis;

— conflicts, abrupt deterioration of governability of the state;

— war and military and political gambling;

— toughening of the fight against opposition and civil society;

— increase in the number of serious mistakes made by the leadership of the country;

– decline in living standards;

– growth of social and political tension.

What Should Be Done?

There is only one possible way out of the situation: creation of a full-fledged political alternative:-

personal

ideological

programme

personnel

organisational and financial.

As long as the country does not see any alternative to Vladimir Putin there is no hope.

In the absence of an alternative the collapse of the regime resulting from its own mistakes will lead to chaos and possibly to even worse consequences.

If the alternative does not appear in the next year, it will be another step towards the abyss, and the situation is already such that any next step along the non-existing way may be the last one.

Creation of an alternative is a separate issue that will be central to the next year.