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Bribing of voters in Tula confirmed by statistical analysis

Press Release

March 15, 2010

Statistical analysis of the voting in Tula at SundayТs elections to the city parliament demonstrates an obvious correlation between the percentage of the votes obtained by the parties and the voters turnover. The higher is the turnout at an electoral district (a territory), the higher is the average number of voters giving their votes for progovernmental United Russia party, and, consequently, the lower is the percentage for other parties. Also there is a clear correlation between the percentage of the United Russia voters and those who voted pre-term.

This abnormal correlation is observed both at breakdown of the votes as of polling station and as of electoral district (territory). Such a correlation is one more proof that United Russia was bribing voters.

dark blue rhombus -United Russia
yellow triangle - Zhyrinovsky's LDPR
brown cross - Just Russia
pink square - CPRG
light blue rhombus Ц YABLOKO

Brown line Ц logarithmic (CPRF)
Light blue line Ц logarithmic (YABLOKO)
Dark blue line Ц logarithmic (United Russia)
Yellow line Ц logarithmic (LDPR)
Pink line Ц logarithmic (CPRF)

Vertical scale Ц percentage of votes cast for different parties
Horizontal scale Ц voter turn out

Press here to increase the graph.

At the Moscow City Duma election (October 11, 2009) statistical analysis of the correlation of the votes obtained by a party from the turnover showed the same picture: the higher was the turnover, the more votes were cast for the United Russia party and the lesser for other parties. Such a strange behaviour of the voters is easy to explain through mass-scale fraud in favour of United Russia: ballot stuffing and adding of the votes of those who did not come vote.

Compared to the Moscow election, when the "key" technique of fraud was stuffing of ballots on the election day, Tula demonstrated bribing of voters at pre-term voting.

If there was no fraud, such a graph would like the part of the graph up to 3% on the OX scale. This would mean that voters behaved roughly in the same manner and that only 1% of the voters voted pre-term. However, our graph demonstrates that such a pattern was observed only on half of the territories. Voters of the other half suddenly demonstrated an unusual activity and without any average behaviour pattern. The graph shows splashes of activity (eg, around 8%, 11%, 13% and 18%).

Also the share of those who voted pre-term as of the total number of voters is very high Ц 10 (!) per cent on the average in the city. Moreover, about one third of territories (whole territories, not electoral districts) preterm voting amounted to over 15 per cent of the total of the votes (for example, the following territories: Sovetskaya (32) 23%, Centralnaya (1) 26%, Privokzalnaya (1) 24%, Proletarskaya (16) 24%, Centralnaya (27) 20%, Proletarskaya (19) 20%, Privokzalnaya (5) 19%, Privokzalnaya (4) 18%, Proletarskaya (15) 17% and Privokzalnaya (32) 17%).

Such a strange behaviour of voters proves that much work had been done so that to make them come and vote pre-term. Please see the video and a graph below to see how this was achieved and in favour of what party.


The graph shows that such pre-term voting was conducted in favour of the United Russia. This party got the highest percentage of votes at the territories with high pre-term voting figures.

The dynamics of the УnightФ counting of the votes in the City Electoral Commission is also as always interesting. The table below demonstrates the official ballot for United Russia grew together with the growth of voters turnover against reduction of ballot for YABLOKO, the CPRF and Just Russia.

See also:

the original in Russian

Regional and Local Elections 2010

Tula region: violations elections to the regional parliament. Press Release. March 14, 2010

Progovernmental United Russia is buying off votes in Tula. Statement by the party Chairman. March 12, 2010

Mass-scale buying of votes in favour of the United Russia and the Just Russia party observed at pre-term elections in Tula. Press Release, March 10, 2010




Press Release

March 15, 2010