4.2. SOCIAL SPHERE
4.2.1. Operational System of Social Indices
(OSSI)
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Choice of Priorities
To develop an operational system of social
indices, these
spheres and social trends which exert the decisive influence
on the situation should be pinpointed. There should be no
more than four or five and they should reflect developments
in all districts. Special attention should be paid to
negative trends directly related to the social security
system, capable of provoking social conflicts in the region.
Social Marker
Social markers refer to statistical data
or a system of
markers which best reflect the situation in the sphere
chosen for analysis. As modern statistics has limited
possibilities at the current stage, existing indices should
be used as markers. In the future it could be expedient
to
single out a special group of indices-markers and to create
a related special information basis or special processing
programme in computer centres.
The choice of social markers and priority
spheres of
operational control should have a limited period of
application, and the list of markers shall be amended
regularly, depending on changes in the situation.
System of social markers. The system of social markers has
three levels. The first level embraces initial social markers,
or a complete list of statistical indices chosen
for operational analysis. At the second stage social markers
are aggregated within each block or one of them is chosen
which most fully reflects the existing situation in a
specific sphere (block). At the third and final stage, we
should get a summary (integrated) marker characterising
the
cumulative asssessment of the situation for the region as
a
whole. It should be based on indices calculated at the
previous stage of aggregation.
As the initial level of social markers includes indices
with
different regularity of calculation, aggregated social
markers should be elaborated within the same time structure.
Information Basis
Proceeding from the existing potential of
the information
basis at this stage, the key task is to mobilise all
information channels operating in the region and adapt them
to work in the operational regime. Official (state)
statistics, above all the statistics of family budgets,
prices and labour resources, will play the key role among
other sources of information for a long time to come.
Sources of information can be changed with
the onset of new
problems.
Data from different sources should be accumulated
directly
in the department of employment and social protection.
Principles for the Selection
of Indices
Indices as social markers should satisfy
the following
demands:
- reflect specific processes in the best
possible way;
- be calculated by the same system for
all districts in the
region;
- be general in nature;
- complement each other to ensure a comprehensive
description of processes;
- be relative in form (indices, ratio,
etc.) to ensure the
definition of trends;
- actual data should compare best with
standard data.
Critical Points
The determination of critical points will
play a key role in
the development of OSSI. The absence of the required methods
of operational information collection and processing in
the
current situation predetermined the determination of
critical points mostly on the basis of three possible
versions, or their combination:
- expert assessment;
- agreement between concerned parties,
for example the
regional council of trade unions, the administration and
personnel;
- maintenance of the current state of affairs
to keep the
situation stable and prevent it from worsening.
Critical points should be determined for
each of the chosen
blocks or individual indices. For example, the effectiveness
of measures designed to protect the people's monetary incomes
against inflation may be maintained at any given
stage by the correlation between the subsistence minimum
and monetary incomes of different population groups. The
existing percentage ratio can serve as a guideline for the
next quarter and be used to calculate the level of
devaluation of monetary incomes within the specified period.
Critical points can only be determined accurately if the
situation is fully depicted. In this sense, a number of
key
indices today, for example unemployment and the consumer
market, can help determine critical points for the district,
by taking into account the district's specifics. This calls
for special technical equipment and software, but the
creation of such a system will considerably increase the
effectiveness and purposefulness of the local authorities.
Regularity of Information
At this stage it would be best to provide
information on a
weekly basis, complemented with general monthly indices.
To
specify key trends, we need quarterly assessments based
on
an analysis of family budgets.
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