1.1. Concise Analysis of
the Situation.
The Political Environment
in the Russian Federation. Central Authorities.
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The behaviour of the central authorities
seems to lack
initiative (if "initiative" does not mean decisiveness
"in
general" or "in part", but solution of the
problems in their
most important aspects). This refers both
to the executive
and to the legislative authorities. In many respects
Russia's present power has created problems whose solution
is still unclear. In this sense the authorities are not
only
the hostage of their own misunderstanding of what is going
on, but also the hostage of truly insoluble problems.
Good individual decisions are being made
(as, for example,
the legislative initiative of Russia's President on
establishing a five-year-term transition period for
territorial rehabilitation of repressed peoples and the
Law
"On Establishing a Transitional Period in Territorial
and
State Division in the Russian Federation" adopted by
the
Supreme Soviet on July 3, 1992. This law envisages a three-
year transitional period for Russia in general), but on
the
whole a concept for creating a new federal state is still
missing.
Lack of initiative by the central authorities
even in such
issues as setting up a true state border (the most
transparent example was the declaration that Russia does
not
need a border-line with Azerbaijan, considering that the
former border of the USSR which went through the territory
of Azerbaijan does not exist any more; there are also issues
of borders with Estonia, Georgia, etc.) leads to the
situation when in some of the Russian regions this issue
is
solved locally (in August 1992 the deputy of the "ataman"
(the head) of the Cossacks' troops of the South of Russia,
in view of "indecision and non-acceptance of the measures
on
demarcation of the Russia's state border", ordered
the
closure of the provisional border between Russia and Georgia
with the forces of the Kuban Cossacks' Rada, the Kuban
Cossacks' Army, a division of the household troops of the
Don Army). However, the border issue (especially between
Azerbaijan and Russia, and between Georgia and Ossetia)
is a
special topic. Here we are facing the problem of the
division of peoples. Do the Ossetians in Georgia or the
Lesgins in Azerbaijan desire this? The facts tell us that
they don't. But if the Ossetian crisis is already at its
zenith, the Lesgian one is only beginning. Yet a state in
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the present world must have a guarded border, and in the
aforesaid cases for the time being this is impossible. We
have only to bear the consequences of this and be satisfied
with palliatives like intensification of customs' control
over a limited number of goods. (This is a typical example
of how shortsightedness in politics creates dead ends.)
The problem of political disintegration
and the problems of
migration of entire ethnic groups, economic destabilization,
and collapse of the security system have not truly been
realized. In this respect no lessons were learned from the
disintegration of the USSR.
The policy of "shift of the reform
centre to the regions"
announced by the Government at the conference of the heads
of administrations in Moscow on August 24, 1992 so far
exists only as a slogan, without any concrete declarations
of what this "shift" will actually be. Though
even the most
specific statements of the kind already would mark a certain
progress by the government (or at least, some of its
members) in their understanding of the real situation. Yet
so far the matter is restricted to the pretense of activity,
and in this respect "the policy of the shift of the
reform
centre" to the regions could turn out to be another
myth,
another page in the "Anthology of Modern Russian Mythology".
(We used these notions in our work "Diagnosis",
in the
chapter "Authorities - Imitation". The policy
of myths was
characterized there as follows: "It seems as if the
problems
are 'closed', but there are no positive results." In
this
respect, the summer of 1992 did not bring about anything
new
in comparison with the spring.) The results of the
conference of the heads of administrations, chairmen of
oblast and krai Soviets, and Presidents of the republics
within the Russian Federation, held in Cheboksary on
September 11-12, 1992, also bring us to the latter
conclusion. The President of Russia, Chairman of the
Presidium of the Russian Supreme Soviet and the acting
Prime-minister of Russia participated in this conference;
nevertheless they did not adopt any concrete decisions.
Moreover, an old desire "to hold" the territories,
not
giving them enough freedom, is seen (in this connection
the
President made a declaration on the extension of the
moratorium on elections of local administrations and
governors of Russian territories. But why should Russia's
oblasts and krais be second to the republics within the
Russian Federation or those that already left the Russian
Federation and have nationally-elected Presidents?)
But still we can state that in terms of
economics the Centre
still retains levers over the regions. The question is for
what influence they can be activated. They are insufficient
for conducting their own policies, but are sufficient to
be
somehow switched into the situation.
By this, we mean the following instruments:
- federal budget financing of enterprises,
institutions and
agencies located in the regions, and investments from the
republican budget;
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- subsidies of the federal budget to oblast
and republican
budgets and the budgets of autonomous districts;
- subsidies from federal extrabudgetary
funds (pension,
roads, and employment funds primarily) to the respective
funds of the territories;
- deliveries of production, centrally distributed
from state
resources (including the imports);
- Central Bank credits;
- cash money emission;
- issuing of export licences.
The problem, however, consists in the fact
that in effect,
due to development of negative trends in the economy, the
effectiveness of these instruments is decreasing, financing
of many enterprises is stopped because taxes stop flowing
into the federal budget, subsidies and subventions are not
paid, and state resources are being formed only poorly.
The inertia of the thinking of the regional
authorities is
also very important, as traditionally Russia has been a
highly centralized country.
At present on the whole, the Centre has
the controls for
influencing the situation. Public opinion demonstrates
another view of this problem. According to a sociological
survey held by the Russian Public Opinion Centre in mid-
August (1,695 people surveyed), when asked "Do you
think the
Russian leadership controls the situation in the republic
or
has it gone completely out of control?", 56% of the
respondents answered that "the situation has gone out
of
control" and only 24% answered that the leadership
"controls
the situation". This is true for all the territories
to a
certain extent. However the field of control is being
narrowed quite rapidly. But still, at least at present,
the
government practically does not have to worry about the
oblasts and krais, as there are no influential political
forces in favour of separation from Russia. (Though a
tendency, which is hardly possible to characterise other
than "separatist" - as the isolation of some of
the Russian
territories has become one of its activities - has recently
emerged in the actions of Russia's executive authority.
More
precisely, a closed conference of the heads of
administration of the Russian oblasts organized by the
Russian government was held in Tula at the end of August,
1992, but not all the heads of administrations were invited
(to say nothing about the Presidents of the republics).
There can nothing worse than these policies, because the
next step of these territories could be banding with those
republics that have already had problems with the central
authorities. In any case, activity of some
of these republics in the above-mentioned directions is
already noticeable. It would not be
an exaggeration to say that such policies (if continued)
will spell suicide for the federal power.
We can also say that in a certain sense
the oblasts and
krais do not represent a single whole. Here we mean the
contradictions between the heads of administrations and
the
oblast Soviets (in particular, the heads of administrations
are dissatisfied with the Law "On Oblast (Krai)
Administration", which gave greater rights to the local
legislative bodies of power). Not only the elite of those
bodies, but also the regional elite is far from being united
- there are contradictions between the authority and
directors of industrial or agricultural enterprises, and
chairmen of collective farms.
In terms of the republics, already in winter
- spring 1993
there may arise problems with Tuva. (As according to the
demands of the people's front "Hostug Tyva" ("Free
Tuva") in
Autumn 1992 the Supreme Soviet of this republic will discuss
the issue of holding a referendum on the independence of
Tuva. This is dangerous, as in the long run - if the
referendum yields a response in the positive - this may
cause Tuva to refuse to sign the Federation Treaty. The
latter will mark the beginning of open disintegration of
a
hastily created "Federation", which is particularly
sad
against the background of a possible bloc between Tatarstan,
Bashkortostan, Yakutia, and associations of the indicated
republics with some of Russia's oblasts).
With skilled policies such highly centralized
structures as the army and state security system (KGB) at
the present stage can be a stabilizing factor. At the same
time the existence of such structures can aid decision-making
by the adherents of centralization of Russia on the old
basis (and there are such adherents
in the legislative, executive and presidential power structures)
to stop the process of going sovereign by force.
Until the problem of disintegration of Russia,
and
separation of part of its territories is fully comprehended,
it will be difficult to speak about the preventative
measures.
And if the problem is understood, than by
no means should we
try to gather the Russian regions into one indivisible whole
by force. Reliance on the old institutions in the present
conditions would be illusory.
A few words also have to be said about the
influence of the political disintegration process in Russia
on the situation in the CIS countries. If on December 8,
1991 Russian President Boris Yeltsin could sign the renowned
Belovezh agreements on behalf of Russia, the further the
situation develops, the fewer the reasons there will be
left for him to do so. Russia's political disintegration
could deprive the CIS' realistically-minded forces, which
try to pursuethe policies of integration,
of the hope of making the Commonwealth efficient, to say
nothing about further disintegration of the CIS states.
Moreover, these "realistically-minded" forces
themselves, starting from a certain moment, will begin to
pattern their behaviour not on the federal authority but
on the republican and oblast levels. Already today we can
see such action.
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