| When determining the public's preferences six months
ago, pollsters assumed that the proportion of the "undecided"
(i.e. the floating voters who don't know whom to support, as nobody
seems to be worthy of support) was around 20-25%. This was normal,
with over a year before the elections. However, six months ago the
situation changed: the number of floating voters has increased to
some 40% of the electorate. Whom they may like and support at the
very last moment is a disturbing question.
To clarify the situation in the parties, the Strategic Analysis
and Forecasting Centre questioned 55 experts jointly with the
Glas Naroda (People's Voice) centre for the study of public opinion.
They were asked to assess the potential of the parties on 10 parameters:
support of organizational structures, creative potential of electoral
headquarters, administrative resources, renown of programmes,
financial resources, charisma of the leaders, scope of PR actions,
reputation with the electorate, information support of the media
agencies, electoral support.
The parties were given the highest evaluations for their financial
resources, information support of the media agencies, promotion
of their leaders and the renown of the parties' brands. This made
it possible to outlinea chain: money - media agencies - party
leaders and brands.
The lowest evaluations were given for potential of the headquarters
and renown of programmes and, as a consequence, (except for the
CPRF and United Russia) electoral support. This also creates a
chain: low level of functionaries - vagueness of programmes -
the population is not ready to support them. The parties are interested
in PR politics, but the population is not ready for such moves.
The top ten parties were split into two groups and an additional
sub-group. The first group: the CPRF, United Russia, the LDPR
and Yabloko. They would appear to have the best chances at present.
However, the Union of Right-Wing Forces and the People's Party
of Russia, the latter rising from the second group, are very close
behind and are ready to struggle for the passing vote. The two
parties mentioned last constitute a "sub-layer" between
the first and second group. The second group includes: the Agrarian
party of Russia, the Green (former Kedr) Ecological Party, the
Party for Restoration of Russia and the Party of Life. In most
parameters, the last two are about to leave the top ten.
To enlarge the picture we have calculated the total in all parameters
(the smaller the amount, the higher a party ranks in the top ten).
1. The CPRF - 25.5
2. United Russia - 31.5
3. The LDPR - 32.0
4. Yabloko - 33.5
5. The Union of Right-Wing Forces - 41.0
6. The People's Party of Russia - 56.5
7. The Agrarian Party of Russia - 72.5
8. The "Green" Ecological Party - 78.0
9. The Party for Restoration of Russia - 97.0
10. The Party of Life - 94.5
Let us compare the leaders. The CPRF relies on a high level
of party structures; the renown of its programme; habitual name
and stable electorate. It ranked second for the administrative
resource, (meaning "red" governors), the charisma of
the leader and PR actions. However, the CPRF didn't gain weight.
The results of United Russia are lower than its claims to create
the "ruling majority."
For the time being its potential relies on ranking top for the
administrative resource, finance and support of the state-control
media agencies. That is all.
THE PICTURE BASED ON THE PARAMETERS
Appraisal of the support for organizational structures indicated
that only two parties were consider to have an "above average"
organizational structures - the CPRF and United Russia; at the
same time, organizational structures of the LDPR have improved
over the past few years (it came third place, followed by the
Union of Right-Wing Forces and the People's Party of Russia).
Creative potential of headquarters. Amazingly the Ecological
Party came third here, but the paradox is well-programmed. As
the parties have minor distinguishing factors, the emphasis placed
by the Ecological Party on the fact they are not politicians makes
the party more "advanced", compared to boring general
party rhetoric. The People's Party of Russia came fourth here,
owing its serious approaches. The sixth placed ranking of United
Russia is disturbing. It should be noted that while Yabloko (ranking
first) and the Union of Right-Wing Forces (second) still head
the list, the experts do no anticipate any "creativity"
from the CPRF, the LDPR and others.
United Russia won in the nomination of administrative resource.
The CPRF, the PPR and the Union of Right-Wing Forces are close
to one another, as they claim a small share of the administrative
resource. "The administrative resource" is connected
with proximity to the executive authorities (United Russia), influence
of the regional leaders (CPRF) and general link to power. The
latter seems to be a privilege of the parties which already have
a representation. The PPR and the Union of Right-Wing Forces are
ahead of the LDPR and Yabloko.
The population knows little about the programmes of any of the
parties and, in the opinion of experts, the CPRF alone was rated
higher than the average in this issue. Communist ideas are popular
with some Russians. Yabloko with its concern for human rights,
the Union of Right-Wing Forces with its ideas of economic liberalization,
the LDPR with its patriotic rhetoric and the "Greens"
with their concerns about environmental protection lag a long
way behind the communists.
United Russia is far ahead in terms of financial resources.
Yabloko and the Union of Right-Wing Forces are a little poorer,
followed by the LDPR, which is slighter richer than the CPRF.
The charisma of the leaders appears unexpected in the present
circumstances. Zhirinovsky, despite the irritation he provokes
with our intelligentsia, came top. Gennady Zyuganov, who has tamed
the public, ranked second. Grigory
Yavlinsky, who hadn't seemed charismatic before, finished
third. All of a sudden the Union of Right-Wing Forces came fourth.
To all intents and appearances, the "brilliance" of
Boris Nemtsov and Irina Khakamada are intentional. This is not
real charisma, but PR imitation.
Equal evaluations for the leaders of United Russia (Boris Gryzlov),
the PPR (Gennady Raikov) and the Party for Restoration of Russia
(Gennady Seleznev) are noteworthy. These leaders seem to be typical
creations of the political system: high-ranking officials forced
on the public. They have limited charismatic potential. However,
in the election campaign Raikov's potential may prove higher than
those of Gryzlov and Seleznev owing to his rhetoric.
The LDPR came first in brilliance thanks to the PR efforts of
its leader. The ruling party shares second and third places with
the CPRF. Apart from theLDPR, none of the parties reach even the
average level in terms of the scope of their PR actions.
The CPRF leads in the nomination reputation among voters, due
to its 80-year-old brand name; with the LDPR holding second place
thanks to its publicity stunts. Yabloko managed to take third
place, owing to its constant "special opinion." United
Russia ranks fourth.
United Russia enjoys the most evident support of the media agencies,
which the experts link to its financial and administrative resources.
The LDPR, which has been mentioned more frequently in the news
reports since the New Year, ranks second, followed by Yabloko
and the Union of Right-Wing Forces.
The CPRF ranks fourth, even though the circulation of all left-
winged editions around the country is about 30 million copies.
If we consider electoral support, the CPRF is in the lead, followed
closely by United Russia. The LDPR ranks third after a gap. The
gap between Yabloko and the LDPR is less than the gap between
Yabloko and the Union of Right-Wing Forces, which comes fifth,
followed by the PPR.
However, it shouldn't be forgotten that the situation will evolve.
See also:
State Duma elections
2003
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