| Last Saturday, the Yabloko federal council bureau
passed a resolution calling for the Government's dismissal. The
demand might have left some room for doubt the seriousness of the
party's intentions were - but all doubts must have been dispelled
by Grigory Yavlinsky's
Easter interview. Yabloko escalated the situation just before the
May holidays and the subsequent Presidential address to the Federal
Assembly.
The Communist Party is said to have collected 80 signatures
from Duma members for a motion calling on a vote of no confidence
in the government (90 signatures are required). Now the initiative
will have 17 Yabloko votes. However, in his interview, Yavlinsky
went beyond the idea of replacing Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov
with someone else. He essentially proposed an entirely new agenda
- in an election year.
The April 26 resolution includes the standard list of complaints
against the Government (standard for Yabloko, that is): the inability
to provide security for the nation and its citizens, the failure
of the social reforms, anti-social policies which promote the
interests of major monopolies and oligarchs...
What is new is that Yabloko proclaims its undisputed readiness
to "avert a crisis" and "play an active role in
work on the programme of the new government and its practical
implementation". This is the first time in its history that
Yavlinsky's party has been prepared to officially send its members
into the executive branch (barring some populist negotiations
with Yeltsin in 1996). On the other hand, the Yabloko leader did
not become prime minister four years ago, or eight years ago.
Will he become prime minister nowunder Putin?
There are rumours that Yavlinsky may agree to take the second
most important Cabinet post - but with the power to sign operational
orders. Our sources unanimously say that neither the newspaper
article Yavlinsky wrote last year (titled "Demodernisation",
criticizing the government's agenda) nor the latest move for a
vote of no confidence could have been possible without the president's
direct or indirect approval. It is another matter entirely that
Putin himself probably needs all this to ensure the prime minister's
loyalty until after the parliamentary and presidential elections.
At the same time the Yabloko team or the Yabloko leader may
well join a "government of the pro-Putin majority" as
junior partner in the potential coalition. The post of deputy
prime minister for economic reforms, wielding broad political
powers, is a fitting price tag for the leader of a party loyal
to the Kremlin.
Yavlinsky wouldn't even be an inconvenience for Alexei Kudrin,
the potential candidate for prime minister from the St. Petersburg
team. According to Vladimir
Lukin of Yabloko, the Cabinet ought to be "a mini-parliament",
if it is to be effective in dealing with the nation's problems.
A Cabinet including Grigory Yavlinsky (with or without other
Yabloko members) would become less oligarchic and clannish. Yabloko
itself would gain the status of "second ruling party",
with all the administrative resources that implies. The Kremlin
and its United Russia party would benefit from the replacement
of the "pipeline Cabinet" at a time when oil prices
are about to fall. This move would boost the ratings of both Yabloko
and United Russia.
Will the scenario be implemented? It is hard to say at this
point. Judging by their initial reaction, the Union of Right-Wing
Forces and the People's Party are rather jealous of the initiative,
and may refuse to back the Communists and Yabloko in the vote
of no confidence motion. Fatherland - All Russia and Unity are
clearly waiting for orders from the Kremlin... As always, it is
up to Putin. The President has to decide what the nation should
witness: maintenance of the status quo and a Communist victory
over United Russia in December - or a replacement of the Cabinet
on the eve of the elections.
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