Interview by Andrei Shary
A nervous reaction displayed by the Russian authorities for
the PACE resolution on the implementation of Moscows obligations
on the democratic development [of Russia] which has not been
promulgated yet, is caused, according to experts, by two main
factors. First, the Kremlin reorients its foreign policy and
foreign economic strategy from Europe to Eurasia. Secondly,
the recent repressive policies towards the civil society will
inevitably affect [Russias] behaviour on the international
arena. Alexei Arbatov, international relations expert and
Director of the Center for International Security of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, talks about this in his interview to
the Radio Liberty.
Alexei Arbatov: Certainly, demonstrative
gestures are used in diplomacy. Here just recently, the U.S.
and the Israeli delegation walked out of the UN General Assembly
meeting during the speech by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Today I have heard that when Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign
Minister, made a speech on Syria in the UN Security Council,
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also left the room
(if only I am not mistaken and understand the news correctly).
Demonstrations of this kind are held from time to time.
However, the problem is like this: unfortunately, a gesture
of Sergei Naryshkin demonstrates the growing gap between Russia
and the rest of Europe. Russias political developments affect
both its foreign policy and its relations with other countries.
Russia has decided to turn to the Asia-Pacific region, and
this is proclaimed everywhere; the Eurasian concept of development
and the Eurasian Union is in the Kremlins focus. Our foreign
and foreign economic policies and our economic strategy has
shifted the emphasis from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region.
The Russian leadership has made it clear that, in general,
for Europe it is not so important, and thus Europes criticism
is unacceptable, and Russia is not even going to listen to
it. [The Russian government] has taken the policies towards
a clear weakening of contacts and relations with Europe. Europe
is in a very poor economic situation (by the European standards,
of course), and it serves as another reasons for Moscow not
to care very much about the relations with Europe.
Radio Liberty: Whether this approach is justified?
Alexei Arbatov: It is justified from the point of
view of the course adopted in the country, the policy towards
consolidation of power, marginalization of the opposition,
change of the law, curbing of different civil freedoms and
liberties and overall toughening of the political regime.
From this point of view, what has been going on in [Russias]
foreign policy is quite logical. But if you look at the situation
with detachment from the outside and in the long run, I think
that this policy is wrong, this course is opportunistic. Indeed,
Europe is weak, America is facing economic difficulties, but
these are temporary development. Even if the recession last
for several years, I have no doubt that Europe and America
will come out of it.
And Russia can finds it Asia? Well, maybe new trading partners.
Russia's contribution to the exchange of goods in the region
amounts to one per cent. Well, if we try hard, we may raise
this index to perhaps two or three percent. But we have to
realise that Europe and America have in Asia is much more
trade ties and are more important in trade than Russia. What
Russia really needs for its development is investments and
new technologies. That's what Russia will not be able to find
in Asia. Certainly Japan and South Korea have all this, but
it is unlikely in this situation that Russia may get something
more from these countries more than their purchase of Russian
raw materials. And in relations with China, Russia will get
what it gets now - investment into the natural resources which
China will take hold of later, and mass-scale exports of low
quality of Chinese consumer goods.
As for the decision of the Chairman of the State Duma not
to go to Strasbourg, I think, no matter how it can be explained,
in fact, the failure Naryshkin is an indicator of uncertainty
in position. If one is sure that everything is correct, that
the laws correspond to the Constitution, that one is supported
by the majority of the population, that one can deal with
the opposition with the help of political means rather than
resorting to repreisals, than one has to go and listen to
the criticism and defend ones position with arguments. But
simply not to go is a struthious position, which, in my view,
may look very nice, but in the long run is very bad for the
future of Russias economic and political development.
Radio Liberty: Can we interpret your words
so that Russia has been virtually curbing cooperation with
the democratic club countries, including, certainly, Japan
and South Korea? And that Russia prefers to deal with those
countries that are not too careful in dealing with human rights
and the development of civil society? Is Russia is focusing
on such allies?
Alexei Arbatov: Certainly, this trend is
quite clearly visible. But this does not mean that Russia
will fenced off from Europe. There will be economic relations,
Russia supplies energy to the West, and gets from Europe what
it gets, there is even investment, and car assembly plants
are built. But this has nothing to do with deeper integration
which would lead to increased investment into the Russian
economy and development of new technologies. Russia has clearly
taken up the course towards alienation from democratic European
countries and the U.S. As far as Asia is concerned, neither
Japan nor South Korea make any claims on Russia over democracy
and human rights. These countries have a different political
structure. But I do not think that these highly advanced countries
may ever replace Europe for Russia in terms of those calculations
that have been previously made in the Kremlin. In particular,
the doctrine of partnership for modernization, which was launched
by ex President, Dmitry Medvedev in words only, and was never
put into practice, is doomed to remain on paper only.
.
See also:
The
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