Who stands to benefit from the reshuffling of political forces
in the wake of Right Cause's embarrassing public meltdown
and Mikhail Prokhorov's abrupt exit from the scene?
As improbable as this might seem, an increasing number of
commentators seem to think it might be Yabloko, which has
been pretty much a non-factor in Russian politics since the
party failed to get into the State Duma in the 2003 elections.
This might just be wishful thinking. Like many Western Russia-watchers,
I had high hopes for Yabloko in the 1990s -- hopes that were
ultimately never realized.
Nevertheless, given the amount of media attention it has
received, a potential Yabloko renaissance is worth examining.
Yabloko founder Grigory Yavlinsky, who stepped down as party
chairman in 2008 and pretty much disappeared from public life
ever since, made a high-profile return to the political stage
this month.
He will lead Yabloko's party list in the December 4 Duma
elections. He has been getting a surprising amount of media
oxygen lately. And with two Kremlin-friendly projects, the
pro-business Right Cause and the ostensibly center-left A
Just Russia, on the skids, there might just be an opening
for him to lead his party into the Duma.
"Indisputably there is one beneficiary that will gain
from the [Right Cause] scandal. It is the Yabloko party, the
constituency of which may be joined by part of the Right Cause
consistency," political analyst Dmitry Orlov told Interfax.
"My forecast is that the scandal will result in a certain
increase in voter support for Yabloko party which in the future
may come very close to clearing the barrier."
In a video posted on his blog, Yavlinsky explained to supporters
his reasons for returning to the political arena, saying that
there was a real chance for change. "I don't have the
right to stand aside," he said. "I don't know if
I will be able to change anything. But I don't have the right
not to try to do this with all my strength."
But as anybody who follows Russian politics knows, it is
not enough for Yavlinsky to run a strong campaign and capture
the constituencies that would have otherwise voted for Right
Cause or A Just Russia. And it also won't be enough for him
use the Internet to bring new voters to the polls who would
have otherwise stayed home (which he has indicated he plans
to do).
In Russia, nobody gets into the Duma unless the ruling elite
wants them to get into the Duma -- that is the reality.
But another reality is that a significant part of the ruling
elite wants a more pluralistic Duma to reflect the aspirations
of an emerging middle class and to deflect growing dissent
among the liberal intelligentsia and professional classes.
So are the Kremlin's political managers who dreamed up and
then abandoned the Right Cause project (and the A Just Russia
project before it) ready to dance with Yavlinsky? And just
as importantly, is the famously prickly and independent Yavlinsky
ready to dance with them?
Some of the traditional tea leaves one needs to read to assess
such things suggest this might be the case.
For example, just today (as I was writing this blog!) Yavlinsky
was featured in an extensive 35-minute interview on the state-run
Vesti-24 channel's flagship interview program "Mnenye"
(Opinion), something that would have been unthinkable just
months ago. Things like that don't happen by accident in Russia.
A recent story in "Nezavisimaya gazeta" analyzing
the causes and consequences of the Right Cause debacle suggested
that Yavlinsky could conceivably play the role in the Duma
that was intended for Prokhorov:
Some observers noticed that the period of Prokhorov's difficulties
occurred simultaneously with undeniable reanimation of Yabloko.
Like a phoenix, Grigori Yavlinsky has been resurrected and
has become the leader of the parliamentary campaign for his
party. Yavlinsky is ever in the focus of the media attention
these days.
The impression is that it is Yavlinsky who will be back in
the Duma after the election, either in the one-man faction
or even perhaps in a fully-fledged one. Moscow will then be
able then to demonstrate a new Duma to the West, a Duma with
elements of democracy.
It will obviate the necessity for Right Cause. After all,
the West will sooner accept Yavlinsky than Prokhorov the oligarch.
This turn of events will increase legitimacy of the Russian
parliament which is something that will suit both the Russian
powers-that-be and the West.
I'll be watching this with interest in the coming weeks,
but for the time being color me skeptical. As a reporter in
Russia in the 1990s, I watched Yavlinsky at close range and
interacted with him often. I have a hard time seeing him playing
the obedient role of a Kremlin-sanctioned "opposition"
figure. Moreover, Vladislav Surkov's team of Kremlin spin
doctors knows this much better than I do and will probably
balk at taking a risk on such a defiant figure.
And finally, one has to wonder: Would a housebroken Yavlinsky
still be Yavlinsky?
-- Brian Whitmore
Published with a kind permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty
See also:
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original publication
Presidential
Elections 2012
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