Based on Vedomosti article, 26 December 2011
According to the Levada-Center poll, 37.6 percent of the participants
of the rally at the Sakharov Prospect voted for the YABLOKO
party. One out of four is ready to support YABLOKO, even if
the leaders of unregistered opposition movements manage to
create their own parties by the next elections. YABLOKO leader
Grigory Yavlinsky was the most popular politician for the
participants in the rally (24.4 percent). Every third participant
of the rally for fair elections would be ready to support
his candidacy at the forthcoming presidential elections. These
are the results of the public opinion poll conducted by Levada-Center.
Levada-Center conducted the poll on 24 December, on the orders
of the organizers of the rally at Sakharov Prospekt, surveying
791 participants at the entrance and exit from the square
(statistical error of 4.8 percent). The results of the poll
make it possible to draw up a socio-demographic picture of
the new protest movement.
YABLOKO was the most popular party among the participants:
37.6 percent voted for this party at the parliamentary elections.
The Communist Party (19.1 percent) came second, and Just Russia
(11.8 percent) third. The Right Cause is preferred by 6.5
percent, with the LDPR attracting the same amount of support,
while less than one percent named the ruling party United
Russia. In addition 13 percent did not vote.
If the opposition were allowed to get their parties registered
at the next election, a relative majority (24.2 per cent)
would vote for YABLOKO, 18.6 percent of those polled would
vote for the potential party of Alexei Navalny, 10.9 per cent
would vote for the Communists, 10.3 per cent for PARNAS and
8 per cent for Mikhail Prokhorovs new party, while Just Russia
and LDPR would each attract 5 percent of the electorate, and
a new party by ex Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin would receive
3.9 percent.
A potential party of Russian nationalists headed by Alexander
Belov and Dmitry Rogozin would attract the least votes (2
percent), followed by the ruling party United Russia (0.8
percent). Meanwhile 4.6 percent would not vote.
The participants of the rally also name Grigory Yavlinsky
as the most popular politician speaking at the rally (27.4
per cent). He is followed after a big gap by PARNAS leaders
Vladimir Ryzhkov (18.4 percent), Boris Nemtsov (13.3 percent)
and Ilya Yashin (11.4 percent), oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov
(15.1 percent) and Just Russias Gennady Gudkov (11 percent).
As for actual candidates in the forthcoming presidential
elections, the participants of the rally were most supportive
of Grigory Yavlinsky (29.1 percent). Mikhail Prokhorov gained
the backing of 17.6 percent and communist Gennady Zyuganov
11.4 percent.
Most of the participants at the rally called themselves democrats
(37.8 percent) and liberals (31.2 percent). Left-wing views
garnered less supports: Communists (12.6 percent), social
democrats (9.5 percent) and the new left (1.6 percent). Right-wing
and extreme right-wing views were in a minority: national
patriots (6.1 percent) and conservatives (2.8 percent). In
addition to these groups participants indicated their support
for the green party (8.1 percent), anarchists and anti-fascists
(2 percent each). A further 12 per cent did not disclose their
preferences.
The participants listed the following reasons for participating
in the rally at Sakharov Prospekt: indignation over electoral
fraud (72.5 percent), dissatisfaction with the situation in
the country (72.8 percent), dissatisfaction over the indifference
of the authorities to the views of the polled participants
(51.7 percent), disappointment in modernization and President
Medvedev (41.7 percent), solidarity with the parties participating
in the rally (15.2 percent), sympathies to the organizers
of the rally (13 percent). Another 15.5 per cent came to the
rally to accompany their friends or simply because it was
interesting.
An overwhelming majority of the participants (from 77 to
86 percent) support the key demands from the resolution of
the rally: to annul the voting results, dismiss head of the
Central Electoral Commission Vladimir Churov and form new
electoral commissions, punish those who rigged the elections
and adopt new democratic election laws. The proposal to release
political prisoners, including Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon
Lebedev, was slightly less popular (64.5 per cent).
In all 72 percent stated that they would be ready to work
as observers at the forthcoming presidential elections. If
the elections are rigged again, 81.9 percent would definitely
attend another protest action, and another 16 percent would
probably join them. In other words, it is highly likely that
the next meeting will attract similar numbers.
Male (60 percent male against 40 percent female), people
with higher education (62 percent and 7.7 percent with two
university degrees), Muscovites and residents of Moscow region
(79 percent and 17.5 percent respectively), young people and
middle-aged people were the main participants of the rally.
Most of those polled (39.4 percent) said that they were aged
23-39; 24.5 percent were aged 18-24; 22.8 percent 40-54
and 21.5 percent over 55. Asked about their occupation, most
said that they were specialists (46.1 percent). 16.5 percent
called themselves managers (half of them managed more than
10 people). Students represented the third most numerous group
(12.3 percent). The number of business owners (7.7 percent)
was the same as white collar workers. Workers from the trade
and services sector (4.2 percent) and workers (3.8 percent)
represented a minority of attendants.
Housewives were the smallest group (1.6 percent). Nevertheless
this refuted the popular opinion that only housewives learn
the news from television: 17.7 percent of the polled learned
about the rally via television, another 26.5 percent by radio,
only 10 percent from newspapers and 4.6 percent from magazines.
However, the Internet was the main media source (for 89 percent
of those polled, including Internet publications for 55.8
percent). Word of month was the second most popular way of
learning the news: 33.2 per cent learned about the rally from
their friends and next of kin. In any case the overwhelming
majority were active Internet users: 67.6 percent discussed
the elections and related issues on social networks.
See also:
The
article in Vedomosti
Elections
to the State Duma 2011
Presidential
Elections 2012
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