| Bashkortostan President Rustem Khamitov suggested making
Matvienko speaker during Dmitry Medvedev’s meeting with regional
governors. He expressed concern that the Federation Council
speaker post was still vacant. Medvedev backed him, describing
Matvienko as “a perfectly successful governor”.
Seeing as how disagreeing with the President is taboo, the
appointment is as good as done. All we can do now is to discuss
the causes and effects.
Khamitov’s statement was surely not extemporaneous (although
the absence of a Federation Council speaker makes no difference
for the governors’ work), with proof coming from Boris Gryzlov,
head of United Russia’s Supreme Council, immediately voicing
support for the idea. Furthermore, Matvienko received offers
from four regions that were willing to have her represent
them in parliament. The country’s political hierarchy acts
this quickly only when a decision has been made in advance
and only technicalities remain to be attended to; however,
the technicalities are not so simple.
The law for comprising the Federation Council stipulates
that only regional or municipal deputies are allowed to be
senators. Matvienko is neither and if she is to become a senator
at once, not even the President’s personal wish is enough.
She was not on the United Russia list of candidates in the
elections to the St Petersburg Legislative Assembly, and the
“deferred mandate” that can be assumed if some of the current
deputies retires is not an option either. No elections, not
even municipal elections, are planned in St Petersburg before
4 December (when the Legislative Assembly is to be elected).
No elections are planned before that date anywhere in Russia
except in village councils, as the CEC website indicates,
but Matvienko being elected chairperson of a village council,
for example, the Kavalerskoye rural settlement on Kamchatka
or Rozental village municipality in Kalmikia, would have the
whole country roaring with laughter …
Once a goal has been set, an early election can be arranged
regardless of the snickering: in St Petersburg, municipal
heads are lining up to vacate their seat for Valentina Matvienko.
They include not only United Russia members: Alexander Shurshev
of the Yabloko party said he was “ready to do anything to
let Matvienko assume her new job as quickly as possible”.
But there are some potential hurdles here: if Matvienko becomes
a senator as a member of the St Petersburg legislature her
powers will last only until December. She will have to join
the United Russia ticket in the elections for the St Petersburg
legislature, win a deputy seat and only then make another
bid for senator.
Who can guarantee, however, that United Russia will win a
majority? What if it does not? Would Matvienko then take her
seat at the Federation Council as a representative of the
new St Petersburg governor? That may be a contingency plan,
because Matvienko’s successor will represent the current legislature,
which is under United Russia’s control. But if United Russia,
led by Matvienko, loses the election, heads may begin rolling;
it is by no means certain that she will keep her seat as Federation
Council speaker.
In short, it would be safer for Matvienko to run in a region
where the governor is ready to promote her to the Federation
Council and still has three or four years to serve, during
which nothing would threaten her. Another possibility being
discussed is to urgently amend the federal law for her sake.
But that option is a bit out of left field…
So much for the technical aspects of the issue. Now onto
the political implications. That Valentina Matvienko is one
of Russia’s most experienced politicians is a well-known fact:
after Yuri Luzhkov, Mintimer Shaimiev and Murtaza Rakhimov
all left the scene, she is probably the last representative
of the Soviet-era party and economic management authorities
who is still at the top. Matvienko was Deputy Chairman of
the Leningrad City Executive Committee from 1986 to 1989,
after which she became People’s Deputy of the USSR and Head
of a Supreme Soviet Committee. She then went on to become
a high-ranking diplomat, and come1998 she served as Deputy
Prime Minister in four governments over five years. Following
that, she was the President’s Plenipotentiary Representative,
and then Governor of St Petersburg ever since 2003. True,
in 2000 Vladimir Putin had to urgently recall her candidacy
in the gubernatorial elections to avoid her being trounced
by Vladimir Yakovlev. Matvienko won the 2003 election thanks
in large part to state backing and Vladimir Putin’s height
in popularity…
How will the people of St Petersburg remember Valentina Matvienko’s
eight-year tenure as governor? She is undoubtedly clever,
resolute, has a way of winning people over and at a pinch
can make a good impression even on her opponents. But being
an authoritarian politician, she hates being criticized and
sees the opposition not as people whose point of view needs
to be taken into account, but as an enemy that should be destroyed
if it doesn’t surrender. It is no wonder that protests in
St Petersburg are broken up, opposition members are made ineligible
to run for public office and the results of elections are
often rigged.
Yes, over the last six months – largely through Director
Alexander Sokurov’s efforts – the governor, who previously
referred to members of the opposition and environmentalists
as “a fringe” and “loud-mouthed defenders of the historical
centre”, has taken to negotiating with them and has moderated
her tone. But the city’s policy has not changed and the essence
of that policy is contempt of its citizens. The city bureaucrats
routinely use such expressions as “We have decided and it
will be so”, “We will not let the citizens bully us around”,
“We will not have our hands tied,” and they dismiss popular
discontent as “speculation”.
Meanwhile, there are many reasons to be discontent. They
are listed on the popular website “St Petersburg without Matvienko”,
which has gathered 37,000 signatures in favour of the governor’s
resignation. The complaints include the destruction of the
city’s historical centre, continued “dense development”, destroying
greenery, demolishing private car garages without any real
compensation and discriminating against small enterprises.
Rising utility rates coupled with the wretched quality of
services and the city’s inability to handle the snowstorms
of recent years (the word “icicles” has been on everybody’s
lips) have also made many people disillusioned with the governor.
Other complaints including wasting taxpayer money on prestige
“projects of the century” and the government’s vocal support
of the infamous Okhta-Centre (construction in the originally
designated spot has been annulled, but the administration
now supports another Gazprom project, a 500-meter tall skyscraper
in Lakhta).
Superimposed on all this was Matvienko’s complicated relationship
with Medvedev, various sources say: there were persistent
rumours that the President had long been thinking of moving
her to another post, but he could not agree with Putin on
her successor. Matvienko’s falling approval rating in the
city is a fact which cannot but worry United Russia on the
eve of city legislature elections: the “locomotive” pulling
along the party ticket could become the ball and chain capable
of sinking the party’s ship. United Russia’s plans to nominate
Valentina Matvienko for a third term as governor caused an
uproar in St Petersburg (Matvienko herself said three years
ago that she would not run for another term).
Most probably all these factors contributed to Matvienko’s
resignation and they may diminish the negative fallout for
United Russia in the coming elections. There are practically
no other jobs that could be offered to her: a former deputy
prime minister and diplomat; a ministerial post would be a
demotion (meanwhile the Kremlin is taking pains to manifest
Matvienko’s dismissal as a promotion and not a punishment).
By the same token the Federation Council speaker will be a
loyal politician who will not engage in independent shenanigans
and will certainly not form any party or pretend to be in
opposition to the government.
Who will succeed Matvienko? She herself has said that there
are “At least three people in the government prepared to replace
me”, although she didn’t name their names, it is not hard
to figure out whom she meant: Vice-Governors Mikhail Oseyevsky
(number two at Smolny), Igor Metelsky, Yuri Molchanov (a former
provost at the Leningrad State University under whom Putin
once worked) and Roman Filimonov. Among federal-level figures,
Justice Minister Alexander Konovalov and State Duma Speaker
Boris Gryzlov have long been tipped as candidates, and they
have now been joined by Sergei Naryshkin, the Presidential
Chief of Staff.
Politicians and analysts in St Petersburg give a mixed assessment
of Matvienko’s departure. Some hope that the new governor
will be more tolerant of the opposition. Others fear that
she might end up being remembered as democratic.
Comments
Vyacheslav Makarov, leader of United Russia at
the St Petersburg Legislature:
Valentina Matvienko is one of the most successful and important
governors in the city’s history. She is a professional in
every way with colossal experience and a large amount of influence.
I am sure that she will serve her country and our city well
in her post as the speaker of the Federation Council. I am
sure that the long-term strategic projects she initiated will
be successfully completed with her at her new position.
Mikhail Amosov, former deputy of the St Petersburg
Legislature, member of the Yabloko Party Political Committee:
Matvienko’s departure is a victory for Yabloko, which has
long been calling for her resignation. We think appointing
a new governor before elections to the city legislature would
be the wrong thing to do; it must be done based on the election
results. The attempt to speed up Matvienko’s transfer to the
Federation Council through the municipality is political manipulation.
If she wants to become a senator, let her head up the United
Russia ticket in elections for the St Petersburg legislature.
It remains to be seen what party will win the elections and
gain a seat at the Federation Council and form the city administration.
See also:
The
original publication
State Duma
Elections 2011
Gubernatorial
Elections
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