Those keeping track of Russia's leading Russian political
parties and politicians' ratings over the past two weeks
noticed the sharp growth in popularity of the liberal-leaning
Grigorii Yavlinskii and his Yabloko movement.
A number of recent polls show that both the movement
and its leader have entered the rank of top three, and
that most supporters of Yavlinskii are between 18 and
30 years of age.
Until recently, the ratings of Yabloko and its leader
have remained stable at about 10 percent of the electorate
for several years, and though that number was increasing,
its growth rate was moderate. That makes the recent sharp
change in the electorate's sympathies surprising. Many
observers approached it with skepticism, saying they had
little faith in the accuracy of the polls. The agencies
that conduct the polls, however, are not only independent
from one another but in competition, and have shown similar
changes in Yabloko's popularity.
Russia has witnessed the birth of a vast number of parties
and movements since 1991. Of this large variety, Yabloko
is presently the only movement bearing the name of a politically
neutral fruit. Russian political observers are currently
claiming the movement's name was selected after a careful
analysis of the average voter's psychological preferences.
In reality, the choice of name was purely accidental.
In 1993, when the movement was forming in order to participate
in the upcoming State Duma lower house of parliament elections,
it was registered under the names of its three leaders:
Yavlinskii, Yuri Boldyrev and Vladimir Lukin. Foreign
journalists shortened these names to the abbreviation
YaBL, but this was too close to the sound of a naughty
word in Russian. So the movement's founders began looking
for a nice word that began with YaBL, and came up with
Yabloko.
Boldyrev soon left the movement to became its uncompromising
political opponent. But the name Yabloko remained, and
people began looking for some deeply hidden political
meaning in it. That is difficult to find, however, because
it is difficult to connect the movement and its main leader
with anything in Russia's political reality.
In the past few years, all of the Russian reformist movements
have experienced a spring of popularity followed by a
steeper decline in the past few years. This includes moderate
reformers like Vladimir Volskii's Civil Union and Viktor
Chernomyrdin's Our Home Is Russia, as well as extreme
liberals such as Egor Gaidar, head of Russia's Democratic
Choice.
It might seem that common Russians have been growing
increasingly disappointed with the reformers. But this
does not concern Yabloko.
Famous for their pro-western sympathies, the movement
and its leader have been slowly but surely gaining popularity.
This year, Yavlinskii managed to win - for the first time
- over 10 percent in the polls. But recent surveys show
he enjoys from 12 to 14 percent support.
One of the keys of this success is the movement's consistent
and unequivocal political attitude. Yavlinskii demonstrated
this through his reluctance to join the government without
a team and program of his own (despite numerous offers).
The rejection of compromise is demonstrated in Yabloko's
remarkable solidarity on any Duma vote, in its rejection
of federal budgets on an annual basis regardless of what
Cabinet the particular draft budget comes from, and in
the movement's strong condemnation of Russia's military
debacle in Chechnya.
This firmness stands out against Vldaimir Zhirinovskii's
undisguised vote trading and the left-wing factions' complicated
and often obscure maneuvering. The public seems to have
recently noticed principal differences between Yavlinskii
and liberal democrats like Gaidar, differences that earlier
seemed minor.
Politicians such as Gaidar have always leaned to the
West, particularly the United States, seeing it as an
example to be followed. But Yabloko has avoided finding
idols outside the country and simply advocated western
civilization's basic values, such as a civil society,
the supremacy of law and a free market economy.
As long as enthusiasm for the West gripped Russian society
and the country celebrated its growing political and economic
relations with the West, this principle difference in
positions went unnoticed. The euphoria passed when Russians
began feeling resentment for the discrepancy between economic
and political conditions between Russia and the West.
The dislike reached its peak with NATO bombings in Yugoslavia.
Gaidar and other right-wing leaders may have condemn
NATO's bombings out loud and flied to Belgrade on peace
missions, but the public saw former Foreign Minister Andrei
Kozyrev's statements as a more explicit manifestation
of Russian liberal democrats' attitude. Kozyrev claimed
a decision taken by the world's 17 richest and most civilized
countries cannot be wrong and needs to be supported.
Just as Yavlinskii condemned Yeltsin's violation of Russian
law during the Chechen War, he also disparaged western
states for violating international treaties the very states
introduced at the end of World War II. But he was also
among the very few to criticize Russian historical revisionism
that protestors used to justify their new-found dislike
for the West.
Along with all of the above-mentioned reasons for Yabloko's
growing popularity, there are also some significant psychological
factors. Until recently, Yavlinskii's adversaries' strongest
argument was his lack of actual experience in state management.
But as the Duma began to gain a greater role in the state
governing system and Yabloko contributed actively to this
process, the argument became irrelevant.
Another powerful factor had been Russia's traditional
lack of confidence in any politician younger than 50.
But the general tendency of Russian management to get
younger (former Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko's youth
earned him the nickname "Kinder-Surprise" when he was
appointed prime minister last year) have made the Yabloko
leader look almost like a patriarch in politics.
It is not that Yavlinskii has become some sort of an
ideal. He is known to be referred to as "Our Duce" by
his own party colleagues behind his back.
His intolerance toward other opinions as well as his
lack of political flexibility will surely cause him more
than a few problems.
But one thing remains certain: Grigorii Yavlinskii and
his Yabloko have become significant players in Russian
politics and are likely to stay that way for a long time.