Poll for politicians prepared by Lyudmila Uvarova

Adoption of the law on monetisation of benefits has boosted the protest mood in our society. However, in autumn the State Duma has to consider new "unpopular" draft laws. Nezavisimaya Gazeta put the following question to well-known Russian politicians: do you expect increasing social confrontation in September-October during discussion of the new unpopular draft laws who do you think may lead the opposition?

Boris Nemtsov, member of the Political Council of the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS):

I think if state officials had initiated the monetisation with themselves - that is, if they had cancelled their own benefits first, making themselves pay the cost of healthcare, dachas, cars, and so on - there wouldn't be the social conflict we are seeing now. But as usual, they have taken care of themselves and decided to put the people last. Now we will see an absolutely huge, fundamental conflict between society and the president this autumn. It will be a conflict with the president, not the authorities as a whole v if they dare to submit a draft law cancelling deferrals from military service for students. Coupled with the monetisation of benefits , this could lead to a sharp rise in social tension. Is the Communist Party able to do anything in this respect? Not alone, I think. In my opinion a critical mass of protest could unite all those who are not part of United Russia - so the left and right will take the same stance. That's an unusual option for Russia - a left-right opposition - and it could be much more formidable than an alliance between the Kremlin-controlled Motherland party and the totally degraded Communist Party. On the right, everyone could be involved: the SPS, YABLOKO, and Irina Khakamada. I don't see any contradictions here.

Sergei Mitrokhin, Deputy Chairman of the YABLOKO party:

The second part of anti-social reforms - the Housing Code, which will affect the lives of more people - will be viewed this fall. It will affect almost all residents, probably with the exception of 5% of the owners of elite housing. Therefore, the tensions will increase in our society. The categories of people who suffered from the abolition of benefits will end up in a harder situation. Suffice it to mention the eviction of people for defaulting on the payment of housing charges. This is the mid term in the new public utilities. Almost 20 articles contain the grounds for evicting an individual evicted from an apartment. It has discredited the most vulnerable categories of people, for instance children who are orphans. The norms affecting most of the population contain the biggest conflict potential. For instance, a demand for full payment of capital repairs, which will lead at a minimum to a doubling of charges which are constantly on the rise. United Russia as such is unable to work anything out: it has no appropriate potential. The actions, which started in summer, will continue this fall. They will involve more people due to the change of season. The confrontation will become more acute. The opposition has no consolidated leader. There are opposed parties, which are at best coordinating their actions. I think the coordination could be improved. Summer has shown that the CPRF, YABLOKO and partially Motherland are active in this respect. As such diverse parties and organisations are handling this issue, nobody will be able to go forward. Even now the trade unions have banned the parties from taking part in meetings. For instance, I took part in a meeting as Chairman of the Committee for Protection of Muscovites, rather than as YABLOKO's Deputy Chairman: they are so jealous of politicians and political parties! The political parties have similar jealousy for one another. A coordination of forces could enable the consolidation. A certain committee may be founded to coordinate the actions of protest. Initiatives related to the holding of a vote on an entire range of problems are possible. If this organisational committee is formed, this will mark a huge step forward. Such a consolidated opposition will be able to resist the outrageous pressure of the ruling party, which now sees no obstacles, is accountable to nobody and has no counterweight. The parties represented at the Duma are not offering a counterbalance: they have no opportunity to gain a constitutional majority. It won't be necessary to register a committee: public structures are free to act without registration. A broad front should exist to protect our Constitution. We cannot act without demonstrations now. Anybody attempting to head such a broad opposition will only impair it: his efforts will eventually generate a split. The creation of a coordinating structure which could become a counterweight to the ruling party, which is moving without brakes, is the real goal behind the creation of this coordinating structure. To curb it or at least direct its activities to a peaceful direction necessitates the creation of a certain public party. Not a party in the literal sense of this word, but a structure which would unite and coordinate the efforts of the maximum number of public and political forces, independent of the authorities. YABLOKO is discussing this issue with other public organisations: the left youth front, partly with the CPRF, SPS members, the Moscow Helsinki Group, the Memorial association and Chernobyl clean-up veterans public organisations. The more stringent and unscrupulous actions undertaken by the authorities during its attack on the democratic and social rights of the citizens, the more chances the opposed parties will have.

Oleg Kulikov, Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party:

I expect the opposition moods will grow from January 1, when the laws take effect. There is inertia in perception; a couple of months are required to understand the impact of these laws, but the masses have been enlightened. It will be hard for people to realize impact of the law until everybody is affected. However, the protest activities have increased in Moscow and the regions. The parties are also protesting: YABLOKO, Motherland, the CPRF and LDPR. The LDPR acts as an indicator; it senses developments. The people start seeing the light and realize whose interests the authorities are protecting. We are ready to unite to everybody to enable our citizens to live better lives, provided that this doesn't involve any infringement on our rights and ideological aims. This wave of anti-social laws cannot be stopped without allies.

Gennadi Gudkov, member of the State Duma Security Committee:

I'm sure the negative events related to the monetisation of benefits will end in March 2005 at the latest. As for the cancellation of benefits regarding public utilities, this will arouse a stormy response at the Duma - both inside the United Russia faction and other opposed factions. I'm absolutely convinced that a constructive opposition will be formed in addition to the tough opposition. The former will be drawn from an opposition, which is not trying to repudiate everything or gain political capital from the errors, miscalculations of discontent of others, the social mood. We are aware of the definite moods inside the LDPR: it has people who want to take positive steps, who are not an absolutely docile and controllable mass. More people will join the centre-left movement. We've seen today that votes inside United Russia have split over Abkhazia and Ossetia. A huge and complex faction cannot have a single viewpoint! I think a coalition of centre-left parties will emerge. Its direction will become clear later.

See also:

Social Policies

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 9, 2004