| Calling a referendum is likely to become much more difficult
for lobbying groups in the future, as a proposal from President Vladimir
Putin looks set to add new bureaucratic hurdles to an already complicated
process.
The move, which requires the Constitution to be amended, is being touted
by its supporters as a more democratic way of gauging public support for
a referendum, but has been criticized as a way for the Kremlin to snuff
out referendum proposals it does not like.
Currently, the Constitution stipulates that only 100 people are needed
to initiate a referendum.
The amendments, submitted to the State Duma on Thursday, would considerably
beef up current registration procedures, requiring an "initiative
group" calling for a referendum to have subgroups in at least half
of the country's 89 regions.
Each subgroup must have at least 100 members, who should all be registered
with regional elections commissions -- meaning at least 4,500 people nationwide.
Further complicating the process is the way groups will be required
to collect the 2 million signatures needed to file for a referendum with
the Central Elections Commission.
In the future, only notarized members of initiative groups will be allowed
to collect signatures, and they will be held legally responsible for their
validity.
They will also have just 45 days to collect them -- half the current
period of three months.
Under the new rules, the number of signatures allowed from a single
region will be cut from 200,000 to 50,000. This will likely reduce the
chances for referendums with a liberal political agenda, as they would
be unable to count on more than a total of 100,000 signatures from Moscow
and St. Petersburg, where support for liberal ideas is traditionally highest.
Initiative groups will also be restricted to submitting a maximum of
2.1 million signatures, meaning that if only 5 percent of signatures are
declared invalid, the application will fail.
Now there are no limits to the number of signatures that can be collected.
Central Election Commission chairman Alexander Veshnyakov, who Putin
nominated his representative for examining the amendments, told reporters
Monday that the changes were necessary "to allow only serious initiatives"
to get through, and dismissed the idea that the amendments would make
it impossible for lobby groups to call referendums.
"If there is a [serious] idea that unites people, what's the problem
in registering an initiative groups of 100 people in 45 regions?"
Veshnyakov said.
Veshnyakov said the changes would make the referendum process more democratic,
since a majority of regions would be involved.
"A referendum has to reflect the different point of views of various
groups of citizens. ... [Initiatives on referendums] are usually taken
without taking public opinion into account," he said.
Kremlin opponents opposed the changes as yet another way to strengthen
the authorities' control over democratic processes, and said it would
be practically impossible for referendums critical of the authorities
to be put to the vote.
"Those in power have monopolized all the [democratic] institutions,"
said Communist Party deputy leader Ivan Melnikov on Friday. "They
have decided to take control of referendums as well; this is another side
of authoritarianism. ... Referendums are not forbidden, but it will become
impossible to initiate them."
The Communists said they would vote against the amendments in the Duma.
But since the Kremlin, through its United Russia faction, controls 306
seats in the Duma -- over the 300 votes required for a two-thirds Constitutional
majority -- the Communists and other minority parties will be unlikely
to affect the outcome.
"This is a move intended to liquidate democracy in Russia and the
right to people to express their point of view," said Oleg Shein,
a deputy with the nationalist Rodina bloc.
Shein said that Rodina will decide Tuesday what its stance on the issue
will be, but said he would vote against the amendments, even if his faction
decides to back the Kremlin.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the ultranationalist Liberal Democratic
Party, said he backs the amendments.
"We usually think that referendums are the very embodiment of democracy
-- when citizens can express themselves about any problems -- but it is
very dangerous in our country to give the possibility to any group to
carry out a referendum," Zhirinovsky said in a statement.
Zhirinovsky said Russia "was not Switzerland, where referendums
are held about whether to build swimming pools."
"In our country referendums are usually about political issues.
The new law should provide that referendums do not endanger our society
and the state. This is why it is better to back the president's version,"
Zhirinovsky said.
Andrei Ryabov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center, said the
changes were another step toward creating "a predictable political
system, where the risks to the present political elite are minimized."
By making it impossible for lobby groups to call referendums, the Kremlin
would cut the chances of independent political initiatives, Ryabov said.
Restrictions on when referendums can be held were introduced last September,
when Putin approved a Constitutional amendment banning referendums for
one year before national elections.
The Communists had then planned to call for a referendum against unrestricted
sales of farmland, as well as against price hikes for housing and communal
services and for the nationalization of strategic branches of the economy.
The Communists and some liberal deputies voted against the change, but
the Duma eventually passed it, taking four votes to reach the required
two-thirds majority.
Veshnyakov said the Duma would give the amendments a first reading at
the beginning of next month, and added that the Kremlin plans to see the
changes coming into force in July.
The Communists complained they had too little time to study the 280-page
draft. Usually deputies are given a month to study draft laws.
Ryabov said that the Kremlin was rushing its amendments through ahead
of the fall, when it plans to introduce a controversial package of social
reforms likely to engender protests among the population.
"The Kremlin is afraid that parties or political groups might use
these protests to drum up support for referendums. The Kremlin does not
like to leave an opportunity like that open," Ryabov said.
The country has seen only one nationwide referendum, in 1993, when Russians
were asked to vote for the new Constitution.
In 2000 a coalition of environmental campaigners called for a referendum
on whether to allow the importing of nuclear waste, but the Central Elections
Commission rejected the application, declaring that more than 600,000
of about 2.5 million signatures were invalid.
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