On this desolate shore of Sakhalin Island, where
sea ice blurs into
treeless tundra, stands a bright blue drilling rig, 22 stories high
and
fresh from Louisiana.
The rig, here since early 2003, is now the tallest structure
on the island,
once a Czarist penal colony, and it is the lance point of a $12
billion oil
and gas development project. It is scheduled to begin drilling
the first of
10 wells deep below the Sea of Okhotsk on June 11 for a consortium
led by
Exxon Mobil.
A few minutes away by helicopter, pipeline routes are being cleared
to
serve Russia's first offshore oil production platform, part of
another oil
and gas development, a $9 billion project led by Shell. Later
this year,
construction is expected to start on Russia's first plant for
liquefying
natural gas for export, which will ship gas from the project to
light up
the neon of the Ginza district in Tokyo.
A few miles away, BP is prospecting for more oil and gas as the
leader of a
third consortium, spending three years and $150 million to prepare
the way
for what it hopes will be a multibillion-dollar project like those
of Royal
Dutch/Shell and Exxon Mobil.
Aggressive investments by the world's three largest oil producers
illustrate how this isolated island north of Japan has become
a world hot
spot for energy development. Sakhalin, roughly equal in area to
Maine but
with fewer than half as many residents as Maine's 1.2 million
people, is on
a track to surpass Moscow this year as the top destination for
foreign
investment in Russia.
"We expect the volume of foreign investments to double this
year and to
reach $1.3 billion," Igor P. Farkhutdinov, Sakhalin's governor,
said in an
interview.
Much of the oil giants' work here is concentrated on modernizing
the
infrastructure of a poor and backward corner of the country, building
bridges and piers, paving roads and airport runways, and repairing
the
narrow-gauge railway that runs north and south on Sakhalin's spine,
to make
it easier to support the oil field development to follow.
"If you are in oil and gas, this is the place to be,"
said Jeffrey Valkar,
director of the American Business Center of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk,
a United
States-financed investment assistance office in the island's capital.
"This
is the biggest oil and gas development happening around the world
today."
Russia has already made great strides in revamping its oil industry
in
recent years, stepping up production by 25 percent and becoming
the world's
No. 2 oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. But that production revival
has
taken place in the already extensively developed fields of central
and
western Russia. For the future, Russia's big growth area may be
its Far
East, especially in the waters around Sakhalin.
It is a hard place to work. "Take Alaska and the North Sea,
combine the
worst of both and you have Sakhalin -- drifting ice, snow, fog,
earthquakes, tsunamis, you name it," said William Dinty Miller,
executive
vice president of BP Sakhalin. But the rewards are on the same
heroic scale
as the obstacles, Mr. Miller said, with offshore reserves estimated
at 200
trillion cubic feet of gas and 60.5 billion barrels of oil. "The
north
slope of North Alaska -- that is the Sakhalin shelf," he
said.
Russia formally took possession of the island in 1855 and has
produced oil
onshore since the 1920's, but Moscow has tended to see Sakhalin
as far, far
away. From the perspective of resource-poor economies like those
of Japan
and South Korea, though, Sakhalin's energy wealth is conveniently
close --
just three days away by tanker, much closer than the Middle East
or even
Southeast Asia.
But tapping it requires the latest technology and plenty of capital,
and to
get it done, Russia has turned to foreign companies in a way that
it has
not elsewhere, and made special legal provisions to attract them.
On May 15, the Russian Parliament is scheduled to give final
approval to a
law intended to assure that the Sakhalin operations of the consortiums
led
by Shell and Exxon Mobil will have stable and consistent tax and
royalty
treatment. The law is expected to open the way for a cascade of
gas
purchase agreements by companies in Japan, the world's largest
importer and
consumer of liquefied natural gas.
"We will supply 15 percent of gas going into Tokyo,"
said Andy C. Calitz,
commercial director of Sakhalin Energy Investment, as the Shell-led
consortium is called. "Half of what we produce will flow
into Japan."
The consortium said on Monday that it had reached its first major
supply
agreement, selling up to 1.1 million tons of liquefied natural
gas a year
to Tokyo Gas for a period of 24 years, starting in 2007.
Competing gas projects are expected to come online in the next
few years in
Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia and East Timor. But Northeast Asia
increasingly views the Russian Far East as its filling station
of the future.
"It is quite obvious that the countries of the Pacific Rim
want to
diversify their energy sources," Galina N. Pavlova, the Sakhalin
regional
government's oil and gas director, said in her office, littered
with
trinkets from visiting energy company delegations. "The political
instability of the Middle East and Indonesia has worked for us
in selling
gas."
In Japan, officials have taken note of the country's growing
reliance on
oil from the Persian Gulf -- up to 86 percent of imports in 2003
from about
70 percent in the 1991 Persian Gulf war. In April, Japan mounted
a lobbying
campaign to persuade Russia to build a 2,500-mile pipeline to
carry a
million barrels of oil a day from eastern Siberia to Nakhodka,
a Russian
port facing Japan. Tokyo offered to finance the entire $5 billion
pipeline,
which could meet nearly one-quarter of Japan's oil needs.
The Russian government decided to back a shorter and cheaper
rival pipeline
proposal instead, to supply northeastern China. The decision effectively
gave China first crack at the oil, but it left open the possibility
of
building a branch later to serve Japan. With oil consumption in
China
expected to double in this decade, the country will soon overtake
Japan as
the world's No. 2 consumer after the United States, and could
easily
swallow all of Russia's East Siberian oil exports, leaving little
need to
extend the pipeline.
"We lose," Kotaru Tamura, a member of Japan's upper
house of Parliament,
said in Tokyo about Russia's pipeline decision. Mr. Tamura favors
a gas
pipeline from Sakhalin to Japan instead, which would be far from
any risk
of diversion to China.
Japan needs the gas. Rolling power shortages are expected in
Tokyo this
summer because 16 of Tokyo Electric Power's 17 nuclear power plants
have
been shut for safety checks and repairs since mid-April.
"If the nuclear plant situation continues, you will see
growth in gas,"
said Larry G. Smith, vice president of Exxon Neftegas, the Sakhalin
subsidiary.
Japanese investors are also helping finance development. In the
case of
Sakhalin Energy, Shell's partners are the Mitsui Corporation with
25
percent and the Mitsubishi Corporation with 20 percent; Shell
has the
remaining 55 percent.
The consortium's project, known as Sakhalin-2, calls for twin
500-mile oil
and gas pipelines from near here to Prigorodnye, a bay near the
island's
southern tip where ships can call year-round. The gas processing
plant to
be built there would be able to liquefy up to 9.6 million tons
a year,
equal to about one-sixth of Japan's total needs.
Some of the gas may go to South Korea or Taiwan as well as Japan;
together,
the three countries account for 70 percent of the world trade
in liquefied
natural gas. China buys little now, though analysts expect its
needs to
rise to 10 million to 15 million tons by the end of the decade.
The Exxon Mobil consortium, which is spending $1.2 billion in
Sakhalin this
year, hopes to start oil production from Chayvo in 18 months,
followed by
gas production for export to Japan in 2008. Exxon Mobil has 30
percent of
the consortium, which also includes a Japanese group of 13 companies;
two
Russian partners, RN-Astra and SMNG-Shelf; and ONGC Videsh Ltd.
of India.
Unlike Shell, Exxon Mobil hopes to skip the sea transportation
and build a
1,450-mile, $900 million gas pipeline all the way to Tokyo.
Such a pipeline could yield benefits beyond reliable energy.
Japan and
Russia have never signed a peace treaty formally ending World
War II
because of a lingering dispute over four small islands near Sakhalin.
Building a gas pipeline could bring about the kind of interdependency
between Russia and Japan that a gas line to Western Europe fostered
between
the Soviet Union and West Germany in the 1980's.
See also:
Production
Sharing Agreements
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