| Six months ago sociologists concluded that the "undecided"
proportion of respondents (the floating votes unable to make up
their mind, as they don’t like any of the options) amounted to 20-25%
of the total. This was only natural a year before the elections.
However, six months later, the situation has changed, with the number
of floating voters growing to 40% of the electorate. Who will they
choose at the last possible moment? Who will they vote for? What
negative element could come from this block? These are disturbing
questions.
To determine the situation in the parties, the Centre for Strategic
Analysis and Forecasts and the Glas Naroda Public Opinion Research
Centre polled 55 experts (political scientists, journalists, party
activists and experts of special services), asking them to evaluate
the potential of the leading parties in 10 areas: the organisational
structure of their support base; the creative potential of their
headquarters; administrative resource; popular knowledge of their
programmes; financial resources; the charisma of their leaders;
the impact of their PR actions; knowledge about them among the
electorate; information support of the media; and electoral support.
Let's begin with the routine feature of party and political
life. The parties got the highest rating in financial resources,
information support of the media and the related popularity of
the party leaders and brands. This produced a chain of money-media-party
leaders and brands.
The parties got the lowest rating in the potential of their
headquarters and popular knowledge of their programmes and, as
a result, electoral resource (with the exception of the Communist
Party of the Russian Federation and United Russia). This prompted
another chain of low standards of party operators-inarticulate
programmes-the absence of popular readiness to vote. The parties
are too engrossed in PR politicking, but the population is not
ready for this.
The group of top ten parties is divided into two and a half
sub-groups. The first includes the KPRF, United Russia, LDPR and
Yabloko, which have the best chances so far. But there are close
runners-up: the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) and the People's
Party of Russia, which is quickly rising from the second echelon.
These two parties are the cushion that divides the first echelon
from the second. The latter includes the Agrarian Party of Russia,
the Greens Ecological Party (former Kedr), the Party of the Rebirth
of Russia, and the Party of Life. The two latter parties are placed
at the bottom of the top ten in most parameters.
To create a larger picture, we have calculated the sum total
of rating by all parameters (the smaller the figure, the higher
the party's standing).
1. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation 25.5
2. United Russia 31.5
3. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia 32.0
4. Yabloko 33.5
5. The Union of Right-Wing Forces 41.0
6. The People's Party of Russia 56.5
7. The Agrarian Party of Russia 72.5
8. The Greens Ecological Party 78.0
9. The Party of the Rebirth of Russia 87.0
10. The Party of Life 94.5
Let's compare the leading parties. The advantages of the KPRF
are high standards of party structures; public awareness of the
party programme; a name recognized by the public; and stable electorate.
It ranks second in administrative resource ("red" governors);
charisma of the leader; and PR actions. But the KPRF has not gained
any ground; the other parties have lost ground. The score of United
Russia is lower than a party claiming the role of "the ruling
majority" should have. Its advantages are a good administrative
resource; finance; and support of a tame media. That's it, so
far.
Picture by Parameters
The organisational structure of the support base: This parameter
is gauged as "above average" for only two parties -
the KPRF and United Russia, although the organisational structures
of the LDPR (third place) have grown stronger over the past few
years. The runners-up are the closely advancing SPS and the People's
Party of Russia.
Creative potential of headquarters: It was a shock to discover
that the Ecological Party came third here, but it was a programmed
shock. Parties differ from each other only insignificantly, so
that the Greens, which say, "We are not politicians,"
look more advanced against the background of boring party rhetoric.
This is also why (owing to serious actions ) the People's Party
of Russia holds fourth place by this parameter. The sixth place
of United Russia is an alarming sign. Yabloko (leader) and the
SPS (runner-up) keep up their high standing, as they are traditionally
regarded as the parties of the intellectuals, while experts do
not expect the KPRF, LDPR and other parties to show a creative
streak.
Administrative resource: United Russia is clearly the leader,
while the KPRF, the People's Party and SPS run shoulder to shoulder,
claiming a minor part of the resource. The term "administrative
resource" means close association with the executive authorities
(United Russia), influence on regional leaders (KPRF) and general
"connection" with the authorities. The latter is the
privilege of the parties that have their representative in the
power structures. The People's Party and the SPS are running ahead
of the LDPR and Yabloko in this respect.
Popular knowledge of party programmes: The public knows very
little about the programmes of all parties, which experts say
are not very attractive (only the KPRF score an "above average"
rating). Communist ideas are still very popular with some of the
public. Yabloko with its human rights policy is the runner-up
followed by the SPS (economic liberalism, the LDPR (patriotic
slogans) and the Greens (nature conservation).
In term of financial resources, United Russia is far ahead of
all other parties. Yabloko and the SPS are somewhat poorer, with
the LDPR moving behind them, although it is much richer than the
KPRF. The rest look like beggars.
The rating by the charisma of leaders looks strange in the current
party-political system. Indeed, although our intelligentsia (including
experts) was outraged by Zhirinovsky, they now give him the highest
rating for charisma. In fact, he is the absolute winner in our
over-bureaucratised policy. Gennady Zyuganov's second place can
be attributed to his hard work to be recognized by the public.
He is followed by Grigory
Yavlinsky, who has not been considered particularly charismatic
in the past. Surprisingly, the SPS leaders came fourth, but the
"brightness" of Boris Nemtsov and Irina Khakamada does
not look like charisma but rather a PR imitation of the real thing.
Interestingly the leaders of United Russia (Boris Gryzlov),
People's Party (Gennady Raikov) and the Party of Russia's Rebirth
(Gennady Seleznev) have approximately the same rating in this
area. It appears that they are the typical products of the political
system, the high-placed "bosses" pushed onto the public
scene. Their charismatic potential is limited, although in an
election the potential of Raikov, who is using the language of
common people, may turn out to be larger than that of Gryzlov
and Seleznev.
The LDPR is leading in the inventiveness and aggressiveness
of PR actions, thanks to the PR efforts of Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
The party of power shares the second and third places with the
KPRF, which speaks volumes, as the communist PR is hardly noticeable.
This means that the summer and autumn campaign of United Russia,
with street advertising and blockbuster promises to monitor wage
payments, proved abortive. With the exception of the LDPR, all
other parties are struggling to get above average.
The PR action concerning 80 years of history won the KPRF the
leading place in terms of public knowledge. The LDPR ranks second
owing to PR actions. Yabloko is also running well thanks to its
traditional image and "dissenting opinion." United Russia
holds fourth place, as its brand is not that well know at present
and not only because the party has a new leader. In reality the
people still remember Unity, Fatherland and All Russia better
than their "offspring," United Russia.
United Russia has the best information support of the media,
which experts attribute to its administrative and financial resources.
The LDPR, whose information presence has grown after the New Year,
is the runner-up. Next come Yabloko and the SPS.
The KPRF comes fourth, even though approximately 30 million copies
of left-wing publications are printed.
Electoral support: The KPRF is leading the race slightly ahead
of United Russia, which is followed, at some distance, by the
LDPR. The gap between the LDPR and Yabloko is smaller than between
Yabloko and the SPS, which is slightly ahead of the People's Party.
In other words, the four leaders are running closely one after
another.
But we should remember that besides these "two and a half
echelons" there are third and fourth ones, which will also
take part in the elections. The situation will change and we cannot
rule out the possibility that the last will come first. We will
continue our analytical monitoring of the situation, which experts
think is useful for specialists, parties and the public.
Democracy is a conscious choice of citizens based on comprehensive
information
See also:
State Duma
elections 2003
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