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The Moscow Times, October 23, 2003

For Whom the Election Bell Tolls

By Nikolai Petrov

With "managed democracy" on the rise, the authorities are not so concerned about election results as they are about presenting a facade of decorum. This, however, becomes more problematic as elections increasingly become an instrument for legitimizing a choice that has already been made behind the scenes, rather than offering voters a real choice; as a consequence of which, voters are losing interest in elections.

The gubernatorial elections already held this year should have served as warning signals. If one compares the results of the 11 regional elections (not counting Chechnya) -- in Taimyr autonomous district, Mordovia, Karachayevo-Cherkessia, Magadan, Belgorod, Sverdlovsk, Omsk, Tomsk, Novgorod, Leningrad region and St. Petersburg -- with the results of the previous round of elections in those regions in 1999-2000, certain trends become manifestly apparent: Voter turnout dropped on average by one-fifth, while the number of people voting against all candidates almost doubled.

It could, of course, be partly put down to "cumulative" voter fatigue caused by regional heads' long periods in office in the majority of regions. But such fatigue could equally well apply to the upcoming State Duma elections. It may be just a coincidence, but in recent months the drop in turnout has been getting greater: from 5 percentage points in Belgorod this May, to 12 to 13 percentage points in Novgorod and Leningrad last month, to 18 percentage points in St. Petersburg.

Pollsters have been quite upbeat in their turnout forecasts for the Duma elections, predicting a 55 to 60 percent turnout -- which is quite respectable, even if lower than in 1999.

The problem, however, is that in a whole handful of regions significantly less than half the electorate may turn out to vote. While in 1999 only Leningrad region's turnout was below the 50 percent mark, this year St. Petersburg, Sverdlovsk, Sakhalin, Kemerovo, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk may follow suit.

Four years ago, all of these regions were hovering in the 50 to 55 percent range. The majority of these regions are considered to be "democratic" and bastions of liberal forces. If the turnout drops below 50 percent, the "party of power" will lose more face than it will votes. And compensating for these losses with the help of the "managed" Bashkortostan, Tatarstan or Mordoviya (virtually the only region where turnout this year was higher than four years ago) is not really a solution.

The authorities are genuinely concerned about a low turnout, as is confirmed by the fact that the Duma elections were moved forward to a more convenient date, and by the Central Elections Commission's campaign to get the vote out.

United Russia's inclusion of some 30 governors on the party's regional lists should make a not insignificant contribution to "administrative mobilization." The Kremlin's thinking is that the governors, with their reputations on the line, will do everything within their power to deliver the "necessary" result. It is surely no accident that the most influential and popular regional heads have been selected.

The problem is that low turnouts and voter disenchantment are only symptoms of a deeper malaise. They are symptoms of a growing gulf between the authorities and the public, and the authorities' diminishing legitimacy. If the alarms ringing out in recent regional elections are not heeded by the authorities, then the bell will surely toll at the Duma elections -- for the system of elections and for Russia's young democracy, period.


Nikolai Petrov, head of the Center for Political and Geographical Research, contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

 

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State Duma elections 2003

The Moscow Times, October 23, 2003

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