| July events suggest the final nails are being
hammered into the coffin of
St. Petersburg Gov. Vladimir Yakovlev's political career. On July
2, the
Union of Right Forces (SPS), Yabloko and Unity parties announced
they
would establish a joint election headquarters to coordinate their
actions
in the December elections to St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly
(SPLA).
The intent, SPS leader and Russian State Duma Deputy Chair Irina
Khakamada said, is an "anti-gubernatorial" list of candidates.
Clearly,
this is a rehearsal for the gubernatorial elections of 2004 and
perhaps a
regional test for a similar coalition in the 2003 State Duma elections.
Grigory Tomchin, head of SPS' St. Petersburg branch, confirmed
that if
Yakovlev runs for a third term, this center-right coalition will
support a
single candidate against him.
The fact is, however, that they might not have to oppose Yakovlev.
On
July 9, the Russian Constitutional Court finally ruled on the
issue of
whether governors could run for third terms and how to calculate
this
given the confusion in law over the years.
It ruled that governors whose second term had begun after October
1999,
when the law limiting regional heads to two terms in office came
into
effect, could run for an additional term unless prohibited by
regional law.
St. Petersburg's Statute 41.5 states: "The same person cannot
be governor
of St. Petersburg for more than two terms in a row, if federal
law does
not stipulate otherwise." A recent court ruled federal law
now permits
more than two terms, if regional law does not stipulate otherwise
- and
around we go.
Juridicially, Yakovlev seems to be in a good position, since
federal law
takes precedence over regional law in the event of contradiction.
Still, it is crucial for Yakovlev to have a legislative majority
that
backs him. An anti-Yakovlev majority in the SPLA would be able
to block
any attempt by Smolny to rewrite the statute so it explicitly
provides for
a third gubernatorial term, or remove the referance to federal
law and
prohibit a third term.
Under these circumstances, the anti-Yakovlev coalition's victory
in the
SPLA elections threatens Yakovlev's chances even to run for a
third-term,
not to mention win one.
Another blow to Yakovlev came with the Internal Affairs Ministry's
(MVD)
move to replace the head of its St. Petersburg branch.
One of the rumors is that St. Petersburg's police chief, Major
General
Venyamin Petukhov, was replaced with Russia's Interpol bureau
chief, Major
General Mikhail Vanichkin, because he refused to dig up criminal
evidence
and kompromat against Yakovlev and his deputy governors.
The indictment and investigations into four of Yakovlev's deputies,
detailed in this column months back, is a key instrument in the
Kremlin's
war on Yakovlev. It remains unclear why the Kremlin's police agencies
have
not moved against Yakovlev himself.
One explanation may be that Yakovlev has kompromat on President
Vladimir
Putin from his days as the deceased former St. Petersburg Mayor
Anatoly
Sobchak's first deputy and/or on MVD Chief Boris Gryzlov, also
formerly of
St. Petersburg.
At a minimum, Vanichkin's appointment is an attempt to more firmly
subordinate the SMVD's St. Petersburg branch to Putin's Kremlin
and step
up the fight against organized crime in the city in the run-up
to the
300th anniversary celebrations set for May. St. Petersburg's police
units
are currently undergoing an aggressive inspection by more than
100 MVD
officers from Moscow.
Gryzlov, who headed Unity before Putin appointed him to the MVD,
is a
potential, though less likely, Kremlin candidate for election
to Smolny.
Two other candidates are more likely Kremlin candidates. St.
Petersburger
and State Duma Chairman Gennady Seleznyov, who has broken with
the
Communist Party and is setting up his own social democratic party,
maintains relatively good relations with the Kremlin.
However, his ties to the city have waned over the years. His
party,
moreover, is likely to flop in the December 2003 State Duma elections,
depriving him of the gravitas that might convince the Kremlin
to overlook
other candidates.
My interviews with Yabloko's St. Petersburg leaders a year ago
suggested
such a coalition, made up of these parties and the city party
Petersburg's
Will, headed by then-Russian Federation Council member and now
chairman
Sergei Mironov, was in the works.
In this space not long ago, I noted that Mironov was recruited
by the
Kremlin from the deputy chair of the St. Petersburg Legislative
Assembly
for election as its representative in the reorganized Federation
Council
and that he might be being groomed to challenge Yakovlev. Mironov's
move
to go national with his party, renamed vaguely the Party of Life,
indicates that he is raising his profile for a run at Smolny.
Yakovlev's only hope against Mironov would be if he is actually
a
creature of the Kremlin St. Petersburg clan of chekists, who stand
opposed
to the St. Petersburg clan of liberals close to United Energy
Systems
Chairman and SPS leader Anatoly Chubais. In this case, a rift
in the
Petersburg clan might prevent Mironov from joining liberals like
Yabloko
and SPS in an anti-Yakovlev coalition.
Nevertheless, the simple three-party coalition is a powerful
force in St.
Petersburg, where Yabloko has traditionally been a powerful force
and
remains so despite the recent collapse of its fraction in the
Legislative
Assembly.Yakovlev quickly responded to the growing threat by announcing,
on July 18, that he would seek a third-term. He hoped that Petersburgers
would "help him."
Do these words indicate that Yakovlev is considering a referendum
for the
city on amending the charter to allow a third term? Certainly,
Yakovlev's
position among the Moscow and Petersburg elites is weak - making
a direct
appeal to the will of the people perhaps his only chance, as his
fortunes
appear darker than ever before.
See also:
Gubernatorial
elections in St Petersburg, 2002
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