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Quite a few foreign mass media publications continue to voice
their bitterness and disappointment as President Vladimir Putin
of the Russian Federation has allegedly dashed the international
community's hopes of a new era in Russian-US relations after the
Ljubljana summit. In other words, Putin has made three statements
over the past seven days, referring to Russian readiness to beef
up its nuclear forces in response to America's NMD (National Missile
Defence) programme. Alexei ARBATOV, deputy chairman of the State
Duma's Defence Committee, had this to say on the issue.
Question: Mr. Arbatov, it transpires that Russia has undermined
the long-awaited "Ljubljana spirit." One gets the impression
that, instead of placing his nuclear cards on the table, President
Putin should have paused for a while.
Arbatov: Why? I personally believe that he should have
done this earlier. Russia should have sent a clear message to
the United States from the very outset. To cut a long story short,
Moscow should have informed Washington that its possible decision
to abrogate the ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Treaty would free
Russia of any strategic arms limitation commitments whatsoever.
At any rate, this amounts to a clear-cut position.
Question: What is so constructive about this position?
Arbatov: The United States keeps talking about its unilateral
withdrawal from the 1972 ABM Treaty. However, Washington doesn't
discuss mutual amendments to that treaty, as well as any joint
actions whatsoever. Consequently, Russia has a moral right to
talk about retaliatory measures. We are not convinced by the assurances
of the new US Administration that the new NMD system won't be
spearheaded against Russia. This isn't enough at a time when such
an issue should be settled within the next two decades.
Russia will act in line with its national interests, if it tells
the United States (if Washington unilaterally deploys its NMD
system) that it won't unilaterally scale down its ground-based
ICBM force (in line with the National Security Councils' resolution
in 2000), and that it will retain an additional number of ICBMs,
fitting them with MIRVs (Multiple Independent Re-Entry Vehicles).
In my opinion, if Russia had voiced this position from the very
outset, it would not waiver in its relations with the United States;
on the contrary, such a position would revent America from playing
it tough and from making any unilateral moves.
Question: Nonetheless, our President's threatening rhetoric
has bolstered the arguments of Westerners, who had asserted that
Putin should not be trusted, and who are convinced that the Russian
authorities are unpredictable.
Arbatov: Whatever happens, we are going to prune our strategic
nuclear forces in line with the target programme. Nevertheless,
Russia has no intention of beefing up its nuclear forces in response
to America's NMD programme. Our strategic forces will be restructured
in the event of a unilateral US decision to abrogate the ABM Treaty.
Question: Surely that leads to a totally new escalation
of the arms race?
Arbatov: Russia was the first country to renounce such
an arms race some time ago. The United States kept demanding for
decades that our country scrap its MIRVed ICBMs. We agreed with
US demands, after signing the START-I and START-II treaties. However,
the United States has so far failed to ratify the START-II treaty
and has announced its refusal to abide to the provisions of this
"impracticable" document. Meanwhile Washington keeps
wrecking the entire strategic arms limitation regime. Therefore
it is perfectly clear who is aggravating the situation.
We must restructure our strategic forces in line with changes
on the international scene. However, Russia would respond differently,
if the United States didn't unilaterally abandon the ABM Treaty,
and if we decided to jointly create a non-strategic European ABM
system.
Question: Would it be prudent to emphasise the NMD issue
at a time when the US Senate is gradually beginning to listen
to everybody who opposes the "Star Wars" programme?
The list of such opponents includes the chiefs of the most important
foreign affairs and armed forces committees in the US Senate.
Moreover, they say that Vice-President Dick Cheney himself has
some doubts.
Arbatov: I'm not sure that Congress will scrap the NMD
programme. The new Senate line-up is largely attributable to chance.
Moreover, it would be premature to claim that the new US Administration
has shelved its long-term plans. I'm sure that Russia's clear-cut
and coherent stand on the ABM issue provides an additional trump
card to those congressmen and senators who are exhorting the Bush
team to think twice before aggravating relations with Moscow.
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