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Strictly speaking, there is one person in the SPS whose tacit
supremacy must be acknowledged by all. But his name is Anatoly
Chubais, and he's busy with more important things than the SPS
leadership; he can't stop his activities, or the SPS would lose
its main sponsor. Moreover, Chubais has never been interested
in a career in public politics.
Ever since Sergei Kiriyenko became a presidential envoy, Boris
Nemtsov has been the de facto leader of the SPS. However, the
SPS does not have an official leader; its five co-chairs are nominally
equal. No one else has expressed an interest in taking charge
of the tedious work involved in becoming a political party; Nemtsov
has been the only one of the SPS "stars" to tour the
regions, sorting out local branches - and he is also responsible
for consolidating the partnership with Yabloko. In short, it all
looked as if Nemtsov would also be the leader of the new party.
It should be noted that Nemtsov had no objections. He only said
that the leader of the SPS party would be a temporary manager,
so there was no particular reason to aim for the leadership. It
certainly didn't seem that anyone was burning to do it. However,
in early April the SPS coordination council suddenly altered its
previous stance on the division of power in the future party.
According to the new version, it would be better to have three
co-leaders rather than one leader. Everyone immediately saw that
the triumvirate idea was a challenge to Nemtsov. Rumours that
Nemtsov was being squeezed out received substantial confirmation:
Yegor Gaidar announced his desire to lead the future party.
After Gaidar's statement, the smile disappeared from Nemtsov's
face. He reportedly told his supporters the other day that under
these circumstances, he and Irina Khakamada would even be prepared
to form an alternative SPS. In other words, Nemtsov wants no part
in any party led by Gaidar.
Nemtsov says that the trouble has been started by people who
have been with Gaidar ever since the Democratic Russia days, and
who constantly egg him on, assuring him that he and he alone can
get the liberal masses to follow him. One of our analysts suggested
that the presidential administration might be encouraging Gaidar;
but Nemtsov firmly replied that the Kremlin has nothing to do
with it - he knows this for a fact. Our source in the presidential
administration was even more categorical: the president's team
has enough on its plate without getting involved in the SPS's
problems.
Right-wing veterans in Gaidar's Democratic Russia movement really
don't like Nemtsov. They refer to him as a "playboy";
they consider him superficial, a lightweight. But it is most unlikely
that these people, relatively few in number, could have pushed
Gaidar into a public rift with the most popular of his colleagues.
Gaidar, the elder of the liberal-reformers, undoubtedly does
have his own ambitions. But until now, Gaidar's ambitions have
not spilled over into public politics. Gaidar only appears in
the Duma occasionally, and has never aspired to head any committees;
at one time he even considered resigning from parliament. He has
never been interested in party work. Why has he suddenly come
forward?
In theory, Gaidar could have been motivated by intra-party ideological
disagreements - but Nemtsov hasn't added anything new to the conflicts
which weaken the SPS from within. As usual, the right-wing forces
are in a state about their relationship with the regime. Having
set themselves the goal of exerting a "positive influence"
on the president, they now argue themselves hoarse with every
zig-zag in the regime's direction - should they change their position,
isn't it time to think of their reputation, the purity of liberal
ideas, etc.
The most recent bout of arguments was triggered by the NTV network
conflict. Right-wing veterans from Gaidar's team proposed that
the SPS should condemn the regime's use of force against the journalists.
Anatoly Chubais, on the other hand, said something along the lines
of "the journalists got what was coming to them". Nemtsov
and Khakamada, trying to reconcile the opposites, took up a position
of "armed neutrality" which satisfied neither side.
Nemtsov's attempt to reconcile opinions about Chechnya within
the SPS ended in similar confusion.
There is nothing strange about such differences of opinion. A
political organisation which is neither influential enough to
affect the president nor proud enough to do without his patronage
is bound to be racked by a "servility complex". Under
these circumstances, what difference would a change of leadership
make?
To all intents and appearances, Gaidar has been asked to "save
the day", as was the case in 1993. Now the situation has
to be saved from Nemtsov - who, having acquired a taste for leadership
and drawing closer to Yabloko, might gradually take the SPS into
opposition. Although Kremlin officials say they don't care what
is happening within the SPS, that's not true. According to our
sources, Nemtsov and Chubais met President Putin at his country
residence as recently as late March. They discussed the leader
of the future party. Chubais named Nemtsov; Putin said, "I
thought as much." Apparently, after this conversation Nemtsov
decided that he was as good as elected already, and gave way to
euphoria. And now - out of the blue - there's this announcement
from Gaidar. Astonished SPS members rushed to Chubais for explanations.
Chubais isn't usually given to diplomacy, but this time he avoided
making any direct answers. He will have to make a choice at the
congress.
If Chubais is washing his hands of this, any SPS member can figure
out what this means: there's nothing Chubais can do. And that,
in turn, means that the SPS's party-building project is on the
brink of failure. True, Nemtsov's supporters are sure that at
the congress on May 26 they'll have the numbers. It is also known
that some prominent business leaders, SPS sponsors, have backed
Nemtsov. While giving Gaidar, the "father of the reforms",
his due, they consider that a party leader should appeal not only
to party members, but to voters - and Gaidar is anything but the
idol of the Russian masses. Neither is he a remotely suitable
ally for Grigory Yavlinsky of Yabloko.
However, Gaidar's Democratic Choice of Russia party is the largest
of the SPS's component organisations, and it will have the majority
of delegates at the congress - so the congress of union could
end in disunity. A complete failure is unlikely; some "healthy
forces" will be found among the candidates at the last moment,
to say that the SPS shouldn't develop a fixation with having one
leader - it should retain the status quo. That is, the party should
continue to have five co-leaders, and the SPS should essentially
remain a coalition. Since such "five-headed" parties
aren't really capable of managing themselves, it is all the more
convenient to manage them from without. And that is the whole
idea.
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