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Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov made a sharp U-turn
on Mar. 23 when he heard NATO forces would soon strike Kosovo.
On his way to Washington for a meeting with Vice- President Al
Gore, Primakov ordered the pilots of his Russian jet to head immediately
back to Moscow. Now, as the Kosovo conflict intensifies, relations
between the U.S. and Russia could be headed for a sharp reversal
as well.
Indeed, the crisis is dividing the U.S. and Russia like no other
issue since the height of the cold war. And how the Kosovo war
is resolved could have a huge impact both on domestic Russian
politics and on the tenor of U.S.-Russian relations for years
to come. The NATO strikes are fanning anti-American sentiment
in Russia, giving a boost to President Boris N. Yeltsin's hard-line
opponents, and undermining support for arms control. That's why,
as a friend of Serbia, Primakov is scrambling to act as mediator
in the conflict. If he can negotiate a cease-fire, he could be
acclaimed for bringing peace and restoring Russia's prestige on
the international stage. And he would become the leading contender
to succeed Yeltsin as President in elections set for June 2000.
Every day the conflict continues, the pressure grows on Primakov
and Yeltsin to intervene militarily. Indeed, on Apr. 7, the State
Duma voted overwhelmingly in favor of a nonbinding resolution
urging Yeltsin to send both arms and a military mission to Yugoslavia.
Although Yeltsin is unlikely to heed that call, the move ups the
ante sharply. If a ground war breaks out, Primakov may not be
able to resist pressure to back the Serbs with arms or troops.
''This is the most dangerous crisis between Russia and the U.S.
since the Cuban missile crisis,'' worries Alexei G. Arbatov, deputy
chairman of the Duma's Defense Committee and member of the moderate
Yabloko Party.
Any Russian military involvement in the conflict--except as peacekeeper--could
be just the start of a sharp turn away from the West. Russian
analysts say it would only be a matter of time before the country
began rebuilding its nuclear arsenal and forging tighter strategic
ties with China, Iran, and Iraq. Already, the conflict has put
on hold U.S.-Russian efforts to slash nuclear arsenals. After
years of delay, Primakov had persuaded the Duma to vote on and
approve the START II treaty in late March. The vote was cancelled
after the strikes, and the treaty is all but dead.
A further escalation of the Kosovo conflict will also shake up
Russian domestic politics. According to recent Russian polls,
98% of the population opposes the NATO strikes. The conflict is
almost sure to boost support for Communist and nationalist politicians
in parliamentary elections in December.
NEXT PRESIDENT? As a shrewd diplomat and ex-spymaster, Primakov
seems to be maneuvering through this minefield to come up with
the best outcome for Russia--and perhaps his own political career.
At home, he is loudly condemning the NATO air strikes, though
resisting military intervention. Apart from Kosovo, he is winning
favor by going after Russia's once-powerful banking tycoons, issuing
arrest warrants for businessmen Boris Berezovsky and Alexander
Smolensky for alleged financial crimes.
Most important, in the international arena, Primakov is presenting
himself as the only person who can broker a deal between NATO
and Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevich. It's true that the
Serbs trust Primakov because Russia consistently has opposed the
use of force in Yugoslavia. And the Clinton Administration is
also used to dealing with the ex-Foreign Minister. On Apr. 6,
Vice-President Gore asked Primakov to urge Milosevich to accept
NATO's terms to end the conflict. Although Primakov hasn't yet
revealed his own proposals, Russian analysts say he could push
for a deal that would include a peacekeeping force involving Russian
troops and soldiers from NATO countries uninvolved in the bombing,
such as Spain.
As the bombs continue to fall on Kosovo, in Russia all eyes are
on Primakov. When he became Prime Minister last September, the
68-year-old was seen as a transitional figure: the ailing Yeltsin's
right hand man until next year's Presidential elections. Now,
he is playing a far greater role.
See the original at
http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_16/b3625099.htm
See also:
Situation
in the Balkans
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