| The Interfax news agency reported yesterday that for
the first time in years Yabloko leader Grigory
Yavlinsky had failed to make the list of Russia's top ten most popular
politicians. Interfax cited a poll by VTsIOM-A, the independent polling
agency headed by Yuri Levada, in which pollsters approached 1,600 respondents
between January 9 and 13. Even Valentina Matvienko and Aman Tuleev are
on the list - but not the Yabloko leader.
The news is all the more stunning, as in a similar poll conducted by
VTsIOM-A in December Yavlinsky was named by 8% of Respondents and was
the fifth most popular politician.Yavlinsky was named by 9% of respondents
in a poll done by the official National Public Opinion Research Center
(VTsIOM) on December 13 and 14. Not bad, considering that the politicians
ahead of him only obtained a percentage point or two more. There is one
other important aspect here. All respondents approached by pollsters already
knew the outcome of the parliamentary elections, and were aware of Yabloko's
failure. Respondents were also aware of Yavlinsky's rare appearances on
television and his refusal to run for President. All this was bound to
have some effect on the outcome of the poll. Actually, it must have had
some effect - but Yavlinsky remained on the list all the same. So what
caused this rapid loss of popularity? "It is impossible," said
Galina Mikhaleva, head of the Yabloko party's analytical centre. "Public
opinion does not change so dramatically fast."
"This is how the question was worded: Name five or six politicians
you trust. Six percent of respondents named Yavlinsky,"explained
Irina Palilova of VTsIOM. "Zyuganov, Matvienko, and Kasianov got
7% each. Overall, Yavlinsky ranked eleventh." Political scientist
Boris Makarenko remains unruffled. "It is undoubtedly interesting
to understand whether Yavlinsky is leaving federal politics," he
said. "Still, it is wrong to discuss it on the basis of a loss of
two points in a single poll. This difference doesn't really matter. As
for the media, it needs sensational news. That is all." By the way,
a comparison of the two latest polls conducted by VTsIOM-A raises a number
of questions as well. Some of Yavlinsky's opponents attribute his failure
to make the top ten to what they call the "special relationship"
between VTsIOM and the structures of Anatoly Chubais. They claim that
this is how Chubais avenged Yavlinsky's refusal to unite with the Union
of Right-Wing Forces. Like any other theory, this one may be considered.
For somereason, however, nobody paid any attention to another piece of
news from the pollsters. Even after the impressive performance of United
Russia and the LDPR in the December election, their leaders Sergei Shoigu
and Vladimir Zhirinovsky were named by 19% of respondents each in a December
poll. In January, Shoigu was named by 22% of respondents, while Zhirinovsky
lost 2%
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