The president did not advocate constitutional changes that would be necessary to create a parliamentary system of government in Russia. Nor did he issue any binding pledge that would weaken the presidential prerogative to appoint cabinet ministers. Nevertheless, for the first time in post-Soviet Russia, a president endorsed in such a forum the idea of appointing a government that would enjoy the support of most parliamentarians. In so doing, Putin significantly raised the stakes ahead of this year's Duma campaign. In 1995 and 1999, the Duma elections both determined the composition of the lower chamber of parliament and served as unofficial "presidential primaries." The results revealed the strengths and weaknesses of various political parties and electoral blocs, and by extension the presidential prospects of their leaders. For instance, Unity's unexpectedly strong second-place showing in the 1999 party-list vote helped make Putin the overwhelming front-runner in the 2000 presidential election held just weeks later. By the same token, former Prime Minister Yevgenii Primakov looked like a strong presidential candidate for most of 1999 -- but that was before the Fatherland-All Russia alliance, which he co-led, finished a distant third in the Duma elections.

Since Putin is not likely to face serious opposition in next year's presidential race, this December's Duma elections will not be the make-or-break event that the 1999 elections were for members of Boris Yeltsin's "family" of advisers. However, now that Putin has endorsed the principle of a government supported by the parliament, a poor showing by pro-presidential parties in December would be embarrassing for his administration. Whether the popular president will endorse any specific party remains unclear, but behind the scenes the Kremlin will make full use of its so-called administrative resources to support the favored parties and undermine its political opponents.

The pro-presidential groups in the current Duma have much to gain if the Kremlin has more riding on the election result. Not surprisingly, several members of those factions lauded Putin's comments about the composition of the future government. However, the reactions of other political leaders were in some ways counterintuitive.

Yabloko leader Grigorii Yavlinskii cautiously welcomed the idea of appointing a government reflecting the parliamentary majority, even as he pointed out that Putin's comments were vague. Union of Rightist Forces (SPS) leader Boris Nemtsov said the proposal "will allow political parties to get involved in tackling the everyday problems of Russian society." His SPS colleague and Duma Deputy Speaker Irina Khakamada argued that Putin should go further. Appearing on NTV on 16 May, she advocated a transition to a parliamentary republic, in which the president would take on the functions of prime minister and appoint a cabinet based on a parliamentary majority.

Yet recent opinion polls suggest that Yabloko and the SPS might have trouble clearing the 5 percent threshold required to win any of the 225 Duma seats distributed according to proportional representation. Even if both parties clear that hurdle, they certainly will not be the "main political forces" in the next Duma. In contrast, members of the Communist Party (KPRF) were not impressed by Putin's proposal. KPRF leader Gennadii Zyuganov said Russia should either become a presidential republic "where the president heads the government and is responsible for everything" or establish a "government of a State Duma majority which, along with the State Duma, would be accountable for what happens in the country," Interfax reported on 16 May. KPRF deputy head Ivan Melnikov blasted Putin, saying he "was attempting to take the president out of the line of fire and to shift responsibility to the executive branch" -- that is, to the government. Appearing on NTV on 16 May, Duma Deputy Sergei Glazev, a member of the Communist faction, asked rhetorically, "If our president really wants to put the government under the control of the people, what is stopping him today?" The Communists' stance is ironic. The KPRF leads all the pro-presidential parties in recent opinion polls. Moreover, during the 1990s the KPRF repeatedly called on Yeltsin to appoint a government representing a parliamentary majority. Yet the Communist position is logical, since the famously risk-averse Putin left himself an out in his address. "It is possible to unite our efforts if the main political forces possess the civic responsibility [required] for collegial work," Putin said. In other words, if parties not to his liking become the "main political forces" in the next Duma, the president can cite their lack of "civic responsibility" as an excuse for backtracking on plans to appoint a government supported by the parliamentary majority. Putin's hedge underscores that he did not endorse a formal parliamentary system, which would diminish his power to hire and fire cabinet ministers at any time. Still, by embracing the principle of a government backed by parliament, Putin increased the pressure on centrist parties to secure a majority in the next Duma. The coming election campaign just became more interesting.

Laura Belin has written extensively on Russian politics and elections since 1995.

See also:

State Duma Elections 2003

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Russian Political Weekly Vol. 3, No. 20, 23 May 2003