| The All-Russia Centre for Public Opinion Studies (VTsIOM)
published the results of its latest opinion polls a few days ago, which
show that 27 percent of the electorate are prepared to vote for the communists
and 26 percent for United Russia.
So what? Even VTsIOM chief Yuri Levada is against blind trust in popularity
ratings. "There is nothing unexpected or mysterious in the ratings,
but they are accompanied by much noise and misunderstanding. Why has the interest of political scientists, political
technologists and reporters in the results of opinion polls been greater
of late than their wish to understand how such figures appear and what
they reflect? Why do they talk so much about ratings now when five months
remain before the parliamentary elections and eight months before the
presidential elections?
A la guerre comme a la guerre - combat operations, attacks, retreats,
and secret weapons are all there. Each fights the only way he can, but
the main methods used are known. The crudest involves election rigging
by "correcting" figures.
Mark Urnov, board chairman of the Political Technologies Center and
a well-known political scientist, reveals the underlying mechanism: "One
of the most widespread signs of a swindle is
when far-reaching conclusions are made about fluctuations in party ratings
within false limits. For instance, a party that suddenly gets six percent
in a rating instead of the usual four
percent declares vociferously to the whole country that it is not a limit,
as the party is the best and its rivals stand no chance of winning, as
their rating is one or two percent down.
Experts see that this is cheating, but the voters don't." Anatoly
Golov, director the Social Politics Institute, is even more categorical:
"I may formulate only one principle for using honestly the results
of opinion polls in an election campaign - show them to no one. Use them
for local needs only, as otherwise either political interpretations or
simply PR manipulations will begin."
Alexander Oslon, president of the Public Opinion Foundation, holds the
same opinion. "When experts try to draw conclusions on the basis
of our figures, you have to consider a few related myths. First, the myth
that a rating is an exact reflection of reality. Second, the myth that
the mood of the voters can be judged by two or three percent. On the other
hand, the myth that public opinion polls are all incorrect is just as
wrong as the myth that the whole
population trusts them."
See also:
State Duma Elections
2003
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