| Today Russian voters are more concerned about the performance
of the housing and utilities services rather than democratic liberties,
and they will be more eager to vote for parties that propose a way out
of the vicious circle in housing and utilities reform. Such a conclusion
can be drawn from the recently published report by the Association of Regional
Sociological Centres based on interregional electoral monitoring.
Sociologists studied the electoral preferences of the Russian citizens,
based on 20 regions in all seven federal districts of the Russian Federation.
Over 10,000 respondents did not conceal their party preferences from the
sociologists. Most of them realistically assess the chances of "their"
party in overcoming a five per cent barrier at the State Duma elections.
Voters from Nadym, Yaroslavl, Khabarovsk, Tula, Krasnodar, Veliky Novgorod,
Ulianovsk, and Omsk (i.e. over 70% of the polled) stated that they would
participate in the voting. The electoral fever has not yet affected both
the capitals, Saratov, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhni Novgorod, Kazan,
and Kaliningrad, where the electorate turned out to be less active. According
to the survey, 15% of the residents of the enclave have not thought about
the coming elections at all, and about 11% are unlikely to vote; whereas
11% hesitated in decision-making on their December trip to electoral booths
(total 37%). However, 36% of the residents of Kaliningrad region stated
their intention to participate in the voting.
However, residents of Kaliningrad displayed more preference for United
Russia (41%) and the Communist Party (30%); whereas pro-Western Yabloko
and the the Union of Right-Wing Forces speaking in favour of enhanced
orientation of the region towards Western Europe accumulated respectively
13% and 15% enemies and 22% and 20% of supporters.
Whose Memory is Better
In general, the rating of party preferences in the cities polled is
topped by United Russia. However, less than 15% of the polled in St. Petersburg
stated their preference for this party. And only Nizhni Novgorod and Novosibirsk,
the regions of the leaders of the right-wing forces Sergei Kiriyenko and
Boris Nemtsov give their hearts to communists. Defence industry-oriented,
Kaliningrad, Tula, and Samara choose communists and Zhirinovsky's liberal
democrats. Residents of Yekaterinburg, Perm, and Kazan give their preference
to the Union of Right-Wing Forces and Yabloko. The Pensioners' Party is
unusually popular with the residents of these particular cities. Probably
the roots of this lie in the demographic profile of the rapidly ageing
large cities.
Judging the opinion polls, our compatriots have not changed their political
preferences since the last election. However, those who voted for, say,
the Yabloko party have better recollections of their choice and the motives
for this choice than Russians who voted for one of the parties of power.
The ideas of the regional electorate about the left and right-wing considerably
differ from how the parties or their ideologists position themselves in
the political Olympus of the capital. For example, [Zhirinovsky's] LDPR,
which has long ceased being an opposition party, is still considered such
a party in the regions.
As for the political leaders, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin
clearly tops the rating - in a hypothetical election the majority of the
electorate in the Russian regions would have voted for Putin (e.g., 85%
of votes from the supporters of the United Russia, 72% from the Union
of Right-Wing Forces, 73% from the People's Party, and 78% from Seleznyov's
Party [of the
Russian Revival]). Only the communist electorate loyally sticks to Gennadi
Zyuganov (43%). According to sociologists, Putin's rating in the electorates
of the Yabloko and LDPR parties remains fairly low: 50% of pro-Yabloko
voters are ready to give their votes for Putin and 33% for Yavlinsky;
37% of Vladimir Zhirinovsky's followers remain loyal to their party leader
and 47% will vote for Putin.
However, it is too early for United Russia that positions itself as
the President's party to celebrate total victory in the region. Even though
it is one of the best known parties in the regions, only 18% of respondents
are ready to vote both for the President and United Russia.
The Herd Does Not Lag Behind
Russian voters are virtually unanimous when asked to list three most
important problems that their regions are facing now. The electorate is
particularly concerned about the situation in the housing and utilities
sector: 42% of the population are enraged by high prices for housing and
utilities services and the inadequacy of the poor services. Impoverishment
(the problem mentioned in the presidential Address to the Federation subject)
ranks second (40%). Third place is given to the poor infrastructure in
cities and rural areas (31%) - in other words this means again the same
housing and utilities services sector. It is quite indicative that in
some regions (Arkhangelsk, Voronezh, Tula, Rostov-on-Don, Saratov, Omsk,
Khabarovsk and Nizhni Novgorod) the problem of the housing and utilities
sector is perceived as a more acute problem, even compared to the problem
of 'material and financial straits', states Igor Zadorin, General Director
of the CIRKON Research Group that managed the whole project.
It should also be noted that St. Petersburg ,that has recently considerably
repaired its facade in connection with the anniversary, is listed among
the three cities most dissatisfied with their municipal infrastructure.
However, when answering the question about the most acute nationwide
problem, polled citizens steadily mention low living standards.
According to CIRKON experts, such a paradox emerges because the federal
mass media do not pay much attention to the problem of the development
of efficient utilities services throughout Russia in general. "That
is why the voter does not realise that the individual problem of his area
has long ago shifted to the agenda of the whole of Russia," says
Zadorin.
Thus, the party that will promptly explain to its electorate that the
housing and utilities sector problem has long ago surpassed the margins
of the notion "my yard and my house" can count on additional
votes. As our electorate is lazy, it prefers slogans and does not read
party programmes and likes a situation where everything has been digested
for him. In addition the population in most of the polled regions is still
inclined to think that Russia should be a state with a regulated economy,
strong social policies and the same incomes for all citizens.
Here we would like to remind the reader of a funny story from our recent
socialist past, when a lecturer answers a question as to why our cattle-breeding
is lagging behind: "We are advancing towards communism in leaps and
boudns, and the cattle simply cannot keep up." And the housing and
utilities sector does not keep the pace with the burgeoning development
of Russian democracy, whose construction is the focus of attention for
most Russian parties.
See also:
State Duma Elections
2003
Housing and Utilities
Sector Reform
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