[home page][map of the server][news of the server][forums][publications][Yabloko's Views]

Vremya Novostei, No. 46, March 2003

Russian Parties as They Are

By Dmitry Olshansky
Prof. Dmitry Olshansky is the Director of the Centre for Strategic Analysis and Forecasts

Six months ago sociologists concluded that the "undecided" proportion of respondents (the floating votes unable to make up their mind, as they don’t like any of the options) amounted to 20-25% of the total. This was only natural a year before the elections. However, six months later, the situation has changed, with the number of floating voters growing to 40% of the electorate. Who will they choose at the last possible moment? Who will they vote for? What negative element could come from this block? These are disturbing questions.

To determine the situation in the parties, the Centre for Strategic Analysis and Forecasts and the Glas Naroda Public Opinion Research Centre polled 55 experts (political scientists, journalists, party activists and experts of special services), asking them to evaluate the potential of the leading parties in 10 areas: the organisational structure of their support base; the creative potential of their headquarters; administrative resource; popular knowledge of their programmes; financial resources; the charisma of their leaders; the impact of their PR actions; knowledge about them among the electorate; information support of the media; and electoral support.

Let's begin with the routine feature of party and political life. The parties got the highest rating in financial resources, information support of the media and the related popularity of the party leaders and brands. This produced a chain of money-media-party leaders and brands.

The parties got the lowest rating in the potential of their headquarters and popular knowledge of their programmes and, as a result, electoral resource (with the exception of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and United Russia). This prompted another chain of low standards of party operators-inarticulate programmes-the absence of popular readiness to vote. The parties are too engrossed in PR politicking, but the population is not ready for this.

The group of top ten parties is divided into two and a half sub-groups. The first includes the KPRF, United Russia, LDPR and Yabloko, which have the best chances so far. But there are close runners-up: the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) and the People's Party of Russia, which is quickly rising from the second echelon. These two parties are the cushion that divides the first echelon from the second. The latter includes the Agrarian Party of Russia, the Greens Ecological Party (former Kedr), the Party of the Rebirth of Russia, and the Party of Life. The two latter parties are placed at the bottom of the top ten in most parameters.

To create a larger picture, we have calculated the sum total of rating by all parameters (the smaller the figure, the higher the party's standing).

1. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation 25.5

2. United Russia 31.5

3. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia 32.0

4. Yabloko 33.5

5. The Union of Right-Wing Forces 41.0

6. The People's Party of Russia 56.5

7. The Agrarian Party of Russia 72.5

8. The Greens Ecological Party 78.0

9. The Party of the Rebirth of Russia 87.0

10. The Party of Life 94.5

Let's compare the leading parties. The advantages of the KPRF are high standards of party structures; public awareness of the party programme; a name recognized by the public; and stable electorate. It ranks second in administrative resource ("red" governors); charisma of the leader; and PR actions. But the KPRF has not gained any ground; the other parties have lost ground. The score of United Russia is lower than a party claiming the role of "the ruling majority" should have. Its advantages are a good administrative resource; finance; and support of a tame media. That's it, so far.

Picture by Parameters

The organisational structure of the support base: This parameter is gauged as "above average" for only two parties - the KPRF and United Russia, although the organisational structures of the LDPR (third place) have grown stronger over the past few years. The runners-up are the closely advancing SPS and the People's Party of Russia.

Creative potential of headquarters: It was a shock to discover that the Ecological Party came third here, but it was a programmed shock. Parties differ from each other only insignificantly, so that the Greens, which say, "We are not politicians," look more advanced against the background of boring party rhetoric. This is also why (owing to serious actions ) the People's Party of Russia holds fourth place by this parameter. The sixth place of United Russia is an alarming sign. Yabloko (leader) and the SPS (runner-up) keep up their high standing, as they are traditionally regarded as the parties of the intellectuals, while experts do not expect the KPRF, LDPR and other parties to show a creative streak.

Administrative resource: United Russia is clearly the leader, while the KPRF, the People's Party and SPS run shoulder to shoulder, claiming a minor part of the resource. The term "administrative resource" means close association with the executive authorities (United Russia), influence on regional leaders (KPRF) and general "connection" with the authorities. The latter is the privilege of the parties that have their representative in the power structures. The People's Party and the SPS are running ahead of the LDPR and Yabloko in this respect.

Popular knowledge of party programmes: The public knows very little about the programmes of all parties, which experts say are not very attractive (only the KPRF score an "above average" rating). Communist ideas are still very popular with some of the public. Yabloko with its human rights policy is the runner-up followed by the SPS (economic liberalism, the LDPR (patriotic slogans) and the Greens (nature conservation).

In term of financial resources, United Russia is far ahead of all other parties. Yabloko and the SPS are somewhat poorer, with the LDPR moving behind them, although it is much richer than the KPRF. The rest look like beggars.

The rating by the charisma of leaders looks strange in the current party-political system. Indeed, although our intelligentsia (including experts) was outraged by Zhirinovsky, they now give him the highest rating for charisma. In fact, he is the absolute winner in our over-bureaucratised policy. Gennady Zyuganov's second place can be attributed to his hard work to be recognized by the public.

He is followed by Grigory Yavlinsky, who has not been considered particularly charismatic in the past. Surprisingly, the SPS leaders came fourth, but the "brightness" of Boris Nemtsov and Irina Khakamada does not look like charisma but rather a PR imitation of the real thing.

Interestingly the leaders of United Russia (Boris Gryzlov), People's Party (Gennady Raikov) and the Party of Russia's Rebirth (Gennady Seleznev) have approximately the same rating in this area. It appears that they are the typical products of the political system, the high-placed "bosses" pushed onto the public scene. Their charismatic potential is limited, although in an election the potential of Raikov, who is using the language of common people, may turn out to be larger than that of Gryzlov and Seleznev.

The LDPR is leading in the inventiveness and aggressiveness of PR actions, thanks to the PR efforts of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The party of power shares the second and third places with the KPRF, which speaks volumes, as the communist PR is hardly noticeable. This means that the summer and autumn campaign of United Russia, with street advertising and blockbuster promises to monitor wage payments, proved abortive. With the exception of the LDPR, all other parties are struggling to get above average.

The PR action concerning 80 years of history won the KPRF the leading place in terms of public knowledge. The LDPR ranks second owing to PR actions. Yabloko is also running well thanks to its traditional image and "dissenting opinion." United Russia holds fourth place, as its brand is not that well know at present and not only because the party has a new leader. In reality the people still remember Unity, Fatherland and All Russia better than their "offspring," United Russia.

United Russia has the best information support of the media, which experts attribute to its administrative and financial resources. The LDPR, whose information presence has grown after the New Year, is the runner-up. Next come Yabloko and the SPS.

The KPRF comes fourth, even though approximately 30 million copies of left-wing publications are printed.

Electoral support: The KPRF is leading the race slightly ahead of United Russia, which is followed, at some distance, by the LDPR. The gap between the LDPR and Yabloko is smaller than between Yabloko and the SPS, which is slightly ahead of the People's Party. In other words, the four leaders are running closely one after another.

But we should remember that besides these "two and a half echelons" there are third and fourth ones, which will also take part in the elections. The situation will change and we cannot rule out the possibility that the last will come first. We will continue our analytical monitoring of the situation, which experts think is useful for specialists, parties and the public.

Democracy is a conscious choice of citizens based on comprehensive information


 

See also:

State Duma elections 2003

Vremya Novostei, No. 46, March 2003

[home page][map of the server][news of the server][forums][publications][Yabloko's Views]

english@yabloko.ru