| Yesterday President Vladimir Putin made what may be the
biggest personnel decision in his career to date. By dismissing or accepting
the resignation of Alexander Voloshin, head of the presidential administration,
Putin is marking a watershed between his first term in office and the second
term that will almost certainly begin in March next year. To all intents
and appearances, the president will decide within days who Voloshin's replacement
will be: an "enforcer" or a "careerist."
Two independent sources close to the Kremlin informed us that Putin
had accepted Voloshin's resignation yesterday evening. Another two sources
said the president had decided to dismiss Voloshin, and this might be
announced at any moment.
Voloshin became head of the presidential administration in spring 1999,
when the lower house of parliament, with the tacit consent of Yevgeny
Primakov's center-left government, was preparing to impeach President
Boris Yeltsin. Voloshin, a little-known bureaucrat with a soft voice and
high forehead, managed to block the impeachment and set up the dismissal
of political heavyweight Primakov. Voloshin's list of political victories
also includes the success of the Unity movement in the December 1999 parliamentary
elections; the transfer of power from Yeltsin to Prime Minister Putin,
who won a presidential election in the first round; and shaping a pro-presidential
majority in the Duma.
Not all of Voloshin's endeavours have been successful. In spring 1999,
he failed to persuade the Federation Council to dismiss Prosecutor General
Yuri Skuratov; in 2001, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov blocked Voloshin's attempt to radically reform the
government. Voloshin is also believed to have masterminded the plan to
pacify Chechnya by getting Akhmad Kadyrov elected president.
In Russia, the presidential administration is essentially a shadow
government. The Cabinet doesn't make any important decisions without the
administration's approval; sometimes, as with the electricity sector reforms
or introducing a system of bank deposit guarantees, the administration
acts as arbiter between the government and interested parties.
The presidential administration is given a fleeting mention in Article
83 of the Constitution, but its extensive powers are formulated in a presidential
decree dated 1996. According to that decree, the administration prepares
presidential bills, draft decrees, directives, instructions, and addresses;
it monitors and inspects observance of decrees and laws; it works with
political parties, non-government organizations, and foreign politicians;
and it analyzes the situation in Russia and worldwide.
Rumors that Voloshin had submitted his resignation arose on Sunday,
following the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chief executive and largest
shareholder of the YUKOS oil company. Our sources interpreted this gesture
as Voloshin's protest against the forcible approach to resolving the "YUKOS
problem"; sources close to Voloshin say that the approach was supported
by Viktor Ivanov and Igor Sechin, deputy heads of the presidential administration
and Putin's former colleagues from the KGB.
Liberal politicians are expressing regret about Voloshin's departure.
Union of Right Forces leader Boris Nemtsov: "His departure will signify
a political turn in the direction of omnipotence for the special services."
Sergei Mitrokhin, deputy
leader of the Yabloko faction: "In losing Voloshin, the presidential
administration is losing its most balanced force and policies."
Political emigre Boris Berezovsky believes that Voloshin is leaving
of his own will, having seen that the situation in Russia is developing
along the lines of "the forcible scenario."
A member of "Voloshin's team" in the Kremlin said: "We
shall only be able to assess Voloshin's departure once we know who his
replacement will be. That is the real question now. Everything is very,
very tense at the moment. Let's wait until tomorrow."
As we went to print, all sources agreed that the identity of Voloshin's
successor remained unknown. Most sources said that a "temporary figure"
would be appointed as head of the presidential administration. Two possible
candidates were named: Vladislav Surkov, deputy head of the presidential
administration, responsible for managing the Duma elections; and Vladimir
Yakunin, a native of St. Petersburg, senior vice-president of Russian
Railroads.
Sergei Beliaev, St. Petersburg native and former chairman of the State
Property Committee: "Yakunin is one of the most colorful of the president's
supporters, who has the president's full confidence, and whom Putin knows very well from the time they both worked
at the St. Petersburg mayor's office." In Beliaev's view, if Putin
appoints Yakunin as head of the administration, he would be "strengthening
his political positions with people loyal to himself."
Anna Belova, vice-president of Russian Railroads: "It's hard for
me to comment on Yakunin's performance, since I was his direct subordinate
for eighteen months. I can only say that as a manager, he has shown himself
to be a very pragmatic and a strategic thinker."
A source at the presidential administration said that Surkov was more
likely to be appointed as acting head of the presidential administration.
According to the source, "Voloshin's exhaustion has become obvious,
and he has been requested to make way for Surkov."
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