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Moscow, 10 January: State Duma Deputy Chairman Vladimir Lukin (the YABLOKO
faction) and Communist leader Gennadi Zyuganov believe that a possible US
attack on Iraq could have negative consequences for the Russian economy.
Lukin said in an interview with Interfax that this military operation might
have "negative, but temporary consequences" for the Russian economy. "Oil
prices could sharply rise, but are then bound to fall again," he said. In
any case, the oil price will stabilize at 22-28 dollars per barrel, which is
acceptable to Russia, he said.
Lukin believes that the chances that force will be used against Iraq are
50-50 at this point. "I do not agree with those who are convinced that an
attack against Iraq is inevitable," he said.
"It is necessary to bear in mind that the UN inspectors have not found
anything in Iraq that confirms the presence of weapons of mass destructio,"
Lukin noted. However, the Americans are not taking this circumstance into
account and keep saying that they know Iraq possesses such weapons, he said. "If you know, then show us where they are. All this
we know it because we know it' talk is not a reason for a normal trial. It
is enough for a mob lynching, but not enough for a civilized trial," he
added.
Politically Russia is unlikely to significantly influence the USA if the US
administration does decide to use force, before adding: "However, we have to
see to one thing here: whether the action will be conducted under the aegis
of the UN or not. "If the USA begins unilateral actions, naturally we will
protest, but we have to admit that we will not be able to really do
anything."
Communist leader Gennadi Zyuganov said a war on Iraq would mean "a complete
economic collapse for the united Europe and a default for Russia".
"If the price of a barrel of oil falls to 15 dollars, the worst possible
scenarios will ensue, not only in our country, but also on the global
economy," Zyuganov told Interfax on Friday [10 January].
The European countries will become fully dependent on the USA, and Japan.
Some other countries will have serious problems: "From Kashmir to Tel-Aviv
everything may be transformed into a bleeding ulcer.".
For this reason, Russia should pursue an independent policy: "We are not
going to quarrel with anybody, with Europe or America, or our neighbours in
the east - but the Americans' attempt to impose a policy of dictating to the
entire planet will get them into quarrels with everybody,"
Zyuganov said.
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