| Every party goes into the elections with its own
political agenda most suitable for its electorate. The "most
ideological" participants in this year's election campaign
are the long-time opponents: the communists and the liberals, the
Communist Party and the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS). Gennady
Zyuganov's party has combined various Communist programs in its
current ideology. Now it includes Stalin's "great power" component, nostalgia
for the Brezhnev era, and some perestroika formulas like limited
acceptance of private property. However, this "cocktail"
is most appropriate for current supporters of the Communist Party,
a group which ranges from rigid orthodox voters to the protest
voters who don't care about Marx or Lenin.
The SPS, on the contrary, upholds political liberties and the
market economy in its most radical form. Its voters have benefited
the most from the past decade's reforms: they are active and happy
about their lives. In part, the SPS ideology depends on these
people's attitudes - this particularly applies to ending conscription
and moving to a professional military, which is one of the SPS's
key messages in this election campaign. Few SPS supporters want
to see their children serving in the army - but they still disapprove
of draft dodging. At the same time, polls indicate that SPS supporters
are even more loyal to Vladimir Putin than United Russia voters.
Therefore, the civil rights defence component of the SPS's ideology
obviously doesn't appeal to the SPS electorate. Apparently, this
is why the SPS has been unable to overtake Yabloko in the polls,
as reported by both VTsIOM and the Public Opinion Foundation.
The Yabloko party, in turn, is unwilling to reject its traditional
social liberalism ("shock-free reforms" of the 1990s),
but it has enriched its ideological arsenal with some moderate
state focus.
A vivid example is Yabloko's position on Chechnya. Yabloko's
key supporters are the Russian intelligentsia, who demand honest
politics and moderate-liberal ideas. The widespread revival of
the state idea in today's Russia has influenced these people as
well - thus, in a timely response to this trend, Yabloko has avoided
transforming itself into a politically destructive organization,
unlike the Liberal Russia party. Therefore, it has a good chance
of securing seats in the next Duma.
There is some reason to believe that the Liberal Democratic
Party of Russia (LDPR) may also be represented in the next Duma.
There are two major reasons for its popularity: first, a wish
to "spit in the face" of the political establishment;
second, "just for fun", in appreciation of the dramatic
talents of LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky. They account for
more than 5% of the electorate in Russia and Zhirinovsky is exploiting
this potential.
The United Russia party is making every effort to identify itself
with the President - however, that is not enough for any party.
At the same time, United Russia cannot afford the luxury of a
distinct ideology - whether liberal, conservative, or social-democratic
v as its major aim is to defeat the Communist Party and secure
a pro-presidential majority in the next Duma. This objective forces
United Russia to seek the support of an extremely diverse range
of voters: conformists (those who always vote for the incumbent
regime), some of the protest voters who don't want to vote for
the Communist Party, and some potential voters of the SPS. This
is the basis of the ideological diversity of United Russia - it
calls on some of its voters to retain their optimism, while seeking
to appeal to others who condemn state officials for forgetting
about the people's needs.
A left of the centre party may be required to prevent the protest
vote from going to the communists - it should combine pronounced
state focus with priority attention to social issues; at the same
time, it should be bereft on any communist ties. Of the existing
political parties, the People's Party headed by Gennady Raikov
best meets these requirements. According to VTsIOM, under certain
circumstances, up to 9% of the electorate would be ready to support
this party. However to succeed in the elections, the People's
Party will have to convey its message to voters adequately and
make sure it has a good "top trio" of leaders whose
names mean something to the protest voters.
Therefore, contemporary Russia's "de-politicised"
society, combined with a tradition of voting for individuals rather
than ideas, does not rule out that ideology may play an important
role in the forthcoming election campaigns. A party's success
depends to a large extent on its ability to "catch the wave"
and convey its ideas to voters.
See also:
State Duma
elections 2003
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