| MOSCOW, Oct. 2 - Russia is biding its time over
whether to support the Bush
administration in seeking a new United Nations resolution on Iraq,
with
parliamentary leaders saying today that the decision hinged on
economic
interests, and with the Kremlin still declining to lay out its
terms in
public.
Grigory A. Yavlinsky, a liberal leader who sees President Vladimir
V. Putin
regularly, said in an interview that he believed Mr. Putin would
ultimately
allow the American resolution to pass, but was waiting to see
how the
Americans planned to protect Russia's interests in Iraq after
Saddam
Hussein goes.
In Moscow this afternoon, Russia's foreign minister, Igor S.
Ivanov, hinted
that Russia would be willing to consider the American proposal,
saying that
the United Nations Security Council "first should hold its
session and then
decide whether an additional resolution is needed."
"If any additional decisions are needed for the inspectors
to work
efficiently, we will, of course, be prepared to consider them,"
he said.
But just two hours later, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov indicated
that
Russia still opposed the new resolution, which was outlined to
officials
here by Marc Grossman, the American under secretary of state,
on Saturday.
"Diplomatic measures have not been exhausted," the
defense minister said of
Iraq.
Russia is conflicted about a potential war in Iraq, which has
been a major
trading partner and which owes it more than $7 billion in Soviet-era
debt.
Russian oil companies have billions of dollars in contracts with
Iraq.
But there is virtually no support for the Hussein regime among
Russian
leaders - a change from the policy of the Soviet Union, which
nurtured
relations with Baghdad. Russia, a veto-bearing member of the Security
Council, risks spoiling its blossoming relations with the United
States if
it kills the new resolution.
Although Russia's foreign and defense ministries have been issuing
a steady
stream of vague statements, the ultimate decision will be made
by Mr. Putin.
Some politicians here said today that Mr. Putin had already made
up his
mind. Mr. Yavlinsky, leader of the liberal Yabloko party, said
of Mr.
Putin: "I don't think he's bargaining. He's simply waiting
for some time
before he gives a final answer."
"There are some important pre-conditions," Mr. Yavlinsky
said. "There needs
to be a clear vision of what will happen in Iraq after a regime
change."
Russia's interests range from control of Iraqi oil after the
Saddam Hussein
government falls and what economic future Russia would have in
Iraq, to the
likelihood of civil war and its containment.
Mr. Yavlinsky has been received by Mr. Putin several times since
the Sept.
11 terror attacks last year helped to nurture much stronger
Russian-American ties. When asked if he had seen or spoken to
Mr. Putin
since Saturday, Mr. Yavlinsky said, "He is aware of my views."
Most political leaders here today agreed that economics were
at the heart
of the issue. But not all shared Mr. Yavlinsky's view on Mr. Putin.
Aleksei
G. Arbatov, deputy chairman of the Defense Committee in the lower
house of
Parliament, said he did not expect Mr. Putin to support the American
resolution in its current form.
"Russia will not support the current text," Mr. Arbatov
said. "We can't
stop the U.S. We don't have the strength for that. But if they
are hoping
for active cooperation from Russia, it will not come."
The American push for military action, said Mr. Arbatov, seems
to focus
more on removing Mr. Hussein than on trying to enforce a strict
ban on
weapons.
"That's a very subjective approach," he said. "They
say they don't like the
regime. Tomorrow there will be another they don't like. The anti-American
sentiment inside Russia is growing sharply."
Russia has been doing some Middle East diplomacy of its own.
The Kuwaiti
defense minister held talks with senior officials in Moscow today
and an
Iraqi deputy oil minister is in town. On Monday, Prime Minister
Ariel
Sharon of Israel met with Mr. Putin, and today Abu Mazen, the
secretary of
the Palestine Liberation Organization, met officials here.
The defense minister, Mr. Ivanov, referred indirectly today to
American
lobbying on Iraq, saying: "The situation in the region is
a cause of
serious concern for us. There is more to it than the Iraq issue."
So far, Mr. Putin has not revealed his thoughts. In Moscow today,
people were trying to read them, with the Russian daily Izvestiya
concluding, "The priority - the Marxists were right - is economics."
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