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By Jeremy Bransten and Sophie Lambroschini

Does Kremlin reshuffle augur real chance?

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 30, 2001

On 28 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin made substantial changes in the
Russian government, replacing the interior and defense ministers -- among other
cabinet officials -- with close personal associates. Putin said those moves would
advance plans for military reform and what he called the "demilitarization" of
Russian public life.

Analysts say the government reshuffle further consolidates Putin's grip on power, promoting people closely associated with Putin while downgrading officials associated with former President Boris Yeltsin. But at the same time they point out that, in contrast to Atomic Energy Minister Yevgenii Adamov, who resigned in the wake of a conflict-of-interest scandal, dismissed former Defense Minister Igor Sergeev and former Interior Minister Vladimir Rushailo have been reassigned to still prestigious, although less influential, positions. Moreover, those analysts are uncertain whether Putin's new appointments will translate into significant changes in government policies.

Putin himself emphasized that the two top people at the Defense Ministry, as well as the head of the Interior Ministry, will now be civilians, a move he termed "a step toward the demilitarization of Russian society." But although new Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov is now a civilian, he had previously served for 20 years in the Soviet and Russian security services - - where he was a colleague of Putin -- rising to the rank of general in the KGB. Ivanov is seen as Putin's most-trusted ally, precisely because of bonds formed during their joint KGB work.

Michael McFaul, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment, notes that Rushailo's replacement as interior minister by Boris Gryzlov -- who heads the pro-Kremlin Unity faction in the Duma -- is also important.

"It's a further consolidation of Putin's power over ministries where he previously did not have his people in place. Both the interior appointment and the appointments at the ministry of defense -- these are now loyalists to Mr. Putin. Rushailo, especially, was a holdover from [businessman Boris] Berezovsky's clan, so that's a big change and important in terms of Putin's consolidation," McFaul explained.

Speaking to RFE/RL late on 28 March, opposition Duma deputy (Yabloko) Sergei Ivanenko pointed to another sign that Putin is succeeding in imposing his own team. Ivanenko noted that despite the major changes, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who is regarded as a Yeltsin-man, was left completely out of the picture. Ivanenko said: "In essence, this is a government of Putin, who is in reality the government's head. He directly controls all of his ministers and in this sense the fact Kasyanov was not mentioned once today is very revealing."

But will the change in government personnel mean a change in policy? Putin clearly implied sweeping changes. He said on 28 March that the reshuffle was prompted by the situation in the North Caucasus and the need to get on with a long-awaited military reform. Yet all the officials responsible for waging Russia's latest war in Chechnya are still in place, albeit in different posts.

Moscow-based defense analyst Francoise Deauce sees some hope that new Defense Minister Ivanov can shake up the military. "He is someone who is outside the armed forces, who has a lot of authority -- notably from his [earlier] posts inside the security services -- and so maybe he can impose decisions on the army that it might see as going against its interests. In other words, he may be capable of fighting the corporatism of the military institutions that until now was largely responsible for braking successive attempts at military reforms since 1991."

Stephan De Spiegeleire, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Europe policy think tank, is more pessimistic. He said the equation is very simple: until the war in Chechnya is ended, no significant reforms can be expected, no matter what appointments Putin makes from his inner circle.

New Defense Minister Ivanov indicated on 28 March that there would be no "revolution" in military reforms, adding that any changes would be gradual. Military reforms such as streamlining and reorganizing the army, strict reduction of personnel, and the introduction of a professional, rather than conscript, army have been announced for the past decade as indispensable to cut costs and adapt to new realities. But they have never been implemented.

Analysts further note that the reshuffling of a few key cabinet members will not in itself guarantee meaningful reforms. Divisive factions that existed in the upper echelons of the Russian government and the military before Putin came to power still exist. Analyst De Spiegeleire argues that Putin may have a harder time imposing his authority on the machinery of government than his predecessors, as he still lacks their political power base.

"The infighting that's going on -- that has been going on for a very long time -- hasn't stopped just because Putin came in. There may be some different interest
groups that are involved right now but the main fact that -- also within the military -- there are some clans that keep fighting is not going to change by the mere appointment of Ivanov. Unlike previous leaders of Russia, or the Soviet Union, who grew up as first [Communist Party] secretaries and had a huge cadre of people around them, Putin doesn't have it," he commented.

Sophie Lambroschini is a Moscow-based RFE/RL correspondent and Jeremy Bransten is an RFE/RL senior editor based in Prague.

See also:

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty at http://www.rferl.org

Copyright (c) 2000. RFE/RL, Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.org

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 30, 2001

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