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By Aleksei Tavrov

The Fourth force

Vremya MN, May 25, 2001, p. 3

Grigory Yavlinsky's party reminds the right-wing that the political system in Russia has not been transformed into a three-party system for the time being.

On the eve of 26 May 2001, when the Union of Right-Wing Forces will convene for its constituent congress and transformation into a party, it transpired that potential members of this party, possible sponsors and the Kremlin administration were not the only ones to place high hopes on this congress. At long last their neighbours in the political niche have displayed some interest.

The Chairman of Yabloko, Grigory Yavlinsky, forwarded a special letter to the congress of the Union of Right-Wing Forces. As well as being a reminder to the leaders of the Union of Right-Wing Forces of the coalition agreement with Yabloko signed in 2000, the document also contains the plan for the possible cooperation of the two parties for the near-term future. Usually obligatory greetings constitute the main part of such a text. Here, however, the letter described the problems that, in Yavlinsky's eyes, the two organisations should seek first and foremost to resolve. Characteristically, the document ends with the statement that the Union of Right-Wing Forces and Yabloko can only achieve their objectives if they work together, instead of simply wishing the new party a long life.

Yabloko leaders clearly want to demonstrate to the Union of Right-Wing Forces that Yabloko fully understands all the difficulties that the Union of Right-Wing Forces encounters at present, such as, for example, the struggle for leadership, which is inevitable during the establishment of a party (this struggle started before the congress and clearly will not end at the close of the congress), or the need to establish regional branches and create a new image of a "one-leader party". Yabloko is prepared to wait and give the Union of Right-Wing Forces time to become a fully-fledged party, before continuing the process of forming a coalition. However, it is unlikely that all the "brothers in mind" will agree with the letter. For many leaders of the Union of Right-Wing Forces, the relations with Yavlinsky's party represent an important instrument in their struggle for influence within their own party. For example the intentions of Boris Nemtsov to reinforce the coalition could be used against him by the members of Democratic Choice of Russia, led by Yegor Gaidar, who consider an alliance with Yabloko absolutely inadmissible.

One of the major arguments of the opponents of the coalition can be summed up as follows: the two parties have an absolutely different electorate. Therefore, the electorate of Yabloko and the SPS will consider this alliance almost as a betrayal. The "irreconcilable" prefer not to mention that public opinion favours the coalition of the two largest liberal parties. Essentially, the political and economic impact of the activity of the right-wing parties is more important for their electorate than their political and ideological independence. They do not care about the terms of the coalition between Yabloko and the SPS, as long as this coalition will be able to stop the war in Chechnya and considerably increase the welfare of the citizens of Russia. There is another "uncomfortable" detail here: the "hostility" among the advocates of the coalition of the two parties is in many aspects the result of propaganda. This means that it can also be neutralised with propaganda.

But the coalition of the SPS and Yabloko is an issue of principle not only for opponents of Nemtzov. His opponents will have to yield to the pressure of tough circumstances, even if another person as chosen as party leader. The future of the Union of Right-Wing Forces depends to a large extent on their financial and organisational backers. Clearly the banking groups and aluminium tycoons did not decide to support the right-wing forces owing to their concern about the goals of members of several political organisations (of which only Yegor Gaidar's Democratic Choice of Russia and Sergei Kirienko's New Force were more or less known to the public) that decided to dissolve on the eve of the congress. They agreed to support the SPS in their desire for a powerful right-wing coalition capable of withstanding any attempts to shift government policy to the left.

Vremya MN, May 25, 2001, p. 3

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