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Ivan Rodin

Kremlin interested in a Duma Reshuffle

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 17, 2001, p. 3

According to our sources in various Duma factions, the current plans for a Duma reshuffle essentially involve cutting the number of committees. However, Duma deputies could reject this reform - because it is opposed by Yevgeny Primakov, leader of the Fatherland-All Russia faction.

Some Duma sources claim that Primakov is insisting that any changes should not alter the present political balance in the Duma, or at least alter it proportionally. In other words, Primakov is demanding that "minor factions," i.e. the Union of Right Forces (URF), Fatherland-All Russia (FAR), Yabloko, Russian Regions, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), should gain control of some committees – not only those which have been controlled by the Communists until now, but also those belonging to Unity.

Although deputies from these "minor factions" generally support this position, they do not want to sacrifice their present position for the sake of creating a right-centrist coalition. Neither does Primakov seem eager to join such a coalition, as he would play a secondary role. In that case, he would lose his status of political patriarch, which enables him to broker various consultations and compromises. According to our Duma sources, most FAR deputies disagree with Primakov and are trying to persuade him that blocking the Communists is a sensible move. People's Deputy group leader Gennady Raikov has said that if the working group submits the draft plan to reshuffle the Duma in April, Primakov's colleagues may manage to convince him to support this measure.

Our sources also report that President Putin does not oppose a transformation of the Communists into a minority opposition. However, the President wants Gennady Seleznev to remain speaker of the Duma. At the same time, the President has still not made any public comments on a Duma reshuffle. This means that he has probably decided to let others carry out this operation, and then see what happens.

But there are apparently a few serious obstacles to these plans to reduce the left's influence in the lower house. One of them is Unity's reluctance to share its committees.

The Communists will also be displeased, as they will lose control of the most important committees. It is not clear if the Duma will work more constructively after this has been done. It also remains unclear whether normal personal relations between deputies will be maintained after these debates. Their relations are unlikely to remain unaffected.

Another major obstacle is the ideological basis for the proposed right-centrist parliamentary majority. This coalition cannot be based solely on distribution of committees. It will only be successful if it has a distinct political and socio-economic programme. Meanwhile, it is an open secret that the positions of FAR, the URF, Russian Regions, and Yabloko do not always coincide with those of Unity and the People's Deputy.

However, the present situation in the Duma suits the Kremlin and the Cabinet far more than a stable working parliament. This is because the Cabinet has submitted a bill on privatisation to the Duma. According to our sources, the bill restricts the Duma's authority in this area. In this situation, the pro-presidential factions are likely to form an alliance with the URF, whereas Yabloko and FAR would join forces with the Communists.

The idea of restructuring the Duma is supported by Deputy Speaker Liubov Sliska. We asked a number of experts to comment on the need for a restructuring of the Duma.

Igor Bunin, Director of the Political Consulting Centre: This is not about restructuring the Duma. It only involves the redistribution of some Duma committees. A year ago, the pro-government party allowed the Communists to take the most important Duma committees, whereas the right was practically left out of Duma activities. This period is now over, and a number of urgent economic problems must be handled. The Communists are no longer allies; they will try to hinder the reforms planned by the Cabinet. Therefore, the question of eliminating the main political alliance in the Duma is indeed vital.

Georgy Satarov, Director of the Indem Foundation: First and foremost, it is necessary to implement some reforms to the party system. Reforms in the Duma may follow as a result. It is necessary to amend electoral laws. The problem is that when people vote for a party, they know only a few of its leaders. This leads to the existence of many silent groups in the Duma, who represent only their own interests. Therefore, the present situation in the Duma is a consequence of our electoral system.

Vyacheslav Nikonov, President of the Politika Foundation: Of course it is necessary to reform the Duma. In my opinion, the Kremlin committed a serious tactical error when it distributed control of Duma committees only between the Communists and pro-presidential factions. This outraged the right wing, and put the Kremlin in an uncomfortable position. Now it needs to pass a number of economic bills which will not be supported by the Communists, who head most of the economic committees. Therefore, the Kremlin's initial strategy has come into conflict with its current strategy, aimed at radical economic reforms. I agree with Raikov that the Duma has too many committees. However, it will be very difficult to change the present structure of the Duma. It is possible to dismiss Seleznev as speaker, or redistribute committees in favor of other factions, but it is extremely difficult to change the structure of Duma committees themselves. These committees are functioning, and various groups with various political and economic interests stand by them. Reorganising the Duma is not in the interests of the Communists, but it does suit those factions which failed to get any committees when this Duma first convened. This reorganisation will be beneficial from a legislative point of view. And if the Kremlin initiates economic reforms, this restructuring will benefit the Kremlin.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 17, 2001, p. 3

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