Alexei Arbatov, Director of the Centre for
International Security with the Russian Academy of Sciences,
former deputy head of the State Duma Defence Committee
On 21 and 22 January Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP) published
an article Missile Concessions to the Americans: Treachery
or the Miscalculation of Amateurs? A group of military experts
spoke there about the history of signing of the Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1) and about serious miscalculations
that the Soviets had made at the time this treaty was signed.
At the same time, some analysts expressed different opinions
that were at odds with the overall course of the debate.
We have today received one more response of this type, which
we are publishing here.
What is striking first and foremost in the KP article of
21 and 22 January is the improper style in setting forth
some opinions. Substituting argumentation by personal attacks
against opponents in the spirit of the denunciations of
the Stalin times, when any dissenting opinion was declared
to be intrigues by "the enemies of the people".
This is not surprising, as a matter of fact, considering
that among the authors opposing START-1 include ardent admirers
of Stalin and Beria, as well as advocates of Hitler openly
calling to begin studying Mein Kampf in Russia. It seems
to be quite natural, that all this is now being organically
bundled in a single bouquet.
In addition, the nature of the series of publications,
in which only one opinion (that of General V. Dvorkin) contains
a positive evaluation of this treaty; whereas seven other
authors or the quoted figures – either with reservations
or absolutely – deny it.
Therefore, I shall touch only on one of the problems of
the topic. At the end of the 1970s and early 1980s the United
States were actively developing mobile basing systems for
the Peacekeeper and Midgetman ICBMs, and this was extremely
troubling to the Soviet Union. Had the United States not
halted these programmes, we would have insisted on even
tougher control and transparency of the mobile ICBMs, considering
our lag in space reconnaissance, the counterforce nature
of the Peacekeeper ICBM, and considerable superiority of
the USA in terms of the ramified highway system for the
Midgetman missiles.
START-1 does not affect the viability of Russia's ground-mobile
missiles. Authoritative representatives of the RVSN (the
former and new commanders, the former and new chiefs of
the MoD 4th Central Research Institute, and others), and
there are no grounds for trusting them less than to Colonel
Belov, Generals Ivashov and Chervov, or Marshal Yazov, who
are not even missilemen. The peacetime deployment area (125,000
square km) defined for each regiment is more than sufficient,
and the missiles' concealment relies not on the acreage
of the area but on the ramified structure of the roads and
the strength of the bridges. In the pre-war period the operational
deployment of missiles was in no way limited in terms of
acreage. The key thing for the viability of our mobile launchers
is camouflage in the field positions, where the Americans
have never monitored anything and about which they know
nothing. START-1 had nothing to do with this.
I should note in conclusion that the lie that General Dvorkin
allegedly conferred with the State Department and the Pentagon
would be laughable were it not so tawdry. Dvorkin visited
the United States as part of official Russian delegations,
he himself headed the General Staff delegation, and went
on all other assignments on the instructions of the Defence
Minister and the chief of the General Staff. As for the
foolish wish of one of the authors that Arbatov and Dvorkin
should better shoot themselves, there's simply nothing to
say here... Except, perhaps, that this author should follow
his own advice. Moreover that one figure he worships did
so 65 years ago.
See also:
Arms
Control
